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DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Bitcoin market cycle update

Major Cycle Analysis
Note: Research data compiled from blockchain.info, coinmetrics and unchainedcapital.
Bitcoin
As we mentioned in our most recent edition (June) the Bitcoin price has decoupled from the underlying fundamental valuation according to the most relevant metrics. On chain metrics have been implying that Bitcoin is overbought throughout most of this rally. The NVTS ratio for example is seeing its highest levels in 18 months and has finally crossed the overbought level in sync with the most recent sell-off.
It is not uncommon for on-chain metrics and fundamentals to be completely ignored during these types of parabolic moves. The Bitcoin market is still made up majoritively by non-institutional investors and while capital from institutions and professional investors is flowing in gradually, we are currently trading in a very new and unsophisticated market.
This is one of the key reasons we are able to profit so reliably. Emotions run high, there are no trading bots with formulas sophisticated enough to truly know the true price of Bitcoin and the markets are irrational, driven in the most part by fear and greed.
The most recent price balloon to $14,000 followed by a sell off with volumes the largest we have seen since the November 2018 capitulation is one such example.
We will keep you, our traders, informed of any and all portfolio and position adjustments in our trading academy as we always do. I expect the volatility to be substantial, meaning any trading advice given here is likely to be outdated by the time you are reading this.
For this reason this newsletter will be shorter than usual with the majority of our focus now taken away from the fundamentals and onto the recent price action.
Who Is Selling?
The active portion of the total Bitcoin supply (coins that have moved within the last 3 months) has been increasing while all other bands remain flat or moving in the inverse direction (holders continue to hold).
The new sellers are mostly made up of traders and individuals that have been holding for 3-6 months. Some traders are locking profits, others are turning their outlook from bullish to bearish after the swift rise in price and others are selling out to buy more on the dips and increase their overall profits.
This type of trading environment is the fundamental basis for a market that makes higher lows and higher highs. As the sellers are only selling out in an attempt to buy back in at a lower price in the near future.
Long term holders appear to be unphased by the sharp increase in price with their eyes set on a much bigger goal than 100-200% profits. This is a strong fundamental indicator that we are at the beginning of a new long term market cycle. Combine this with the fact that 21.5% of coins have not moved at all in the last 5 years you begin to see that long term holders truly aren’t joining the ranks of sellers even after such a sharp increase in price.
Exchange Flows and Altcoins
We have been monitoring exchange inflows and outflows meticulously. We saw record outflows during April and May, which makes sense considering the majority of buyers during that period were long term investors looking to move their Bitcoin off exchange and into cold storage.
Recently we have noticed an extremely large increase in the inflows to Binance. Generally, a move of this proportion would suggest a sell off. I believe that the reason is twofold. Yes, there were funds moved to Binance to be sold during the most recent parabolic extension. However, it leaves the possibility that individuals may be thinking about moving Bitcoin into alts.
Since Bitcoin exploded in April, alts have significantly underperformed. One could theorise that as the blow off top from the most recent Bitcoin move settles, Bitcoin may trade sideways and create the opportunity for alt season to begin.
Bitcoin dominance has gone from around 50% to a whopping 63% at the end of June and we are still riding that Bitcoin wave right now, however we will be watching any advances in alts closely if Bitcoin appears to stabilise and positive sentiment returns to the altcoin market.
Safe trading - The Team at Boss Crypto
...
Taken from the Boss Crypto VIP research channel at https://bosscrypto.co/
submitted by BawsCole to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Crypto market cycle update

Major Cycle Analysis
Note: Research data compiled from blockchain.info, coinmetrics and unchainedcapital.
Bitcoin
As we mentioned in our most recent edition (June) the Bitcoin price has decoupled from the underlying fundamental valuation according to the most relevant metrics. On chain metrics have been implying that Bitcoin is overbought throughout most of this rally. The NVTS ratio for example is seeing its highest levels in 18 months and has finally crossed the overbought level in sync with the most recent sell-off.
It is not uncommon for on-chain metrics and fundamentals to be completely ignored during these types of parabolic moves. The Bitcoin market is still made up majoritively by non-institutional investors and while capital from institutions and professional investors is flowing in gradually, we are currently trading in a very new and unsophisticated market.
This is one of the key reasons we are able to profit so reliably. Emotions run high, there are no trading bots with formulas sophisticated enough to truly know the true price of Bitcoin and the markets are irrational, driven in the most part by fear and greed.
The most recent price balloon to $14,000 followed by a sell off with volumes the largest we have seen since the November 2018 capitulation is one such example.
We will keep you, our traders, informed of any and all portfolio and position adjustments in our trading academy as we always do. I expect the volatility to be substantial, meaning any trading advice given here is likely to be outdated by the time you are reading this.
For this reason this newsletter will be shorter than usual with the majority of our focus now taken away from the fundamentals and onto the recent price action.
Who Is Selling?
The active portion of the total Bitcoin supply (coins that have moved within the last 3 months) has been increasing while all other bands remain flat or moving in the inverse direction (holders continue to hold).
The new sellers are mostly made up of traders and individuals that have been holding for 3-6 months. Some traders are locking profits, others are turning their outlook from bullish to bearish after the swift rise in price and others are selling out to buy more on the dips and increase their overall profits.
This type of trading environment is the fundamental basis for a market that makes higher lows and higher highs. As the sellers are only selling out in an attempt to buy back in at a lower price in the near future.
Long term holders appear to be unphased by the sharp increase in price with their eyes set on a much bigger goal than 100-200% profits. This is a strong fundamental indicator that we are at the beginning of a new long term market cycle. Combine this with the fact that 21.5% of coins have not moved at all in the last 5 years you begin to see that long term holders truly aren’t joining the ranks of sellers even after such a sharp increase in price.
Exchange Flows and Altcoins
We have been monitoring exchange inflows and outflows meticulously. We saw record outflows during April and May, which makes sense considering the majority of buyers during that period were long term investors looking to move their Bitcoin off exchange and into cold storage.
Recently we have noticed an extremely large increase in the inflows to Binance. Generally, a move of this proportion would suggest a sell off. I believe that the reason is twofold. Yes, there were funds moved to Binance to be sold during the most recent parabolic extension. However, it leaves the possibility that individuals may be thinking about moving Bitcoin into alts.
Since Bitcoin exploded in April, alts have significantly underperformed. One could theorise that as the blow off top from the most recent Bitcoin move settles, Bitcoin may trade sideways and create the opportunity for alt season to begin.
Bitcoin dominance has gone from around 50% to a whopping 63% at the end of June and we are still riding that Bitcoin wave right now, however we will be watching any advances in alts closely if Bitcoin appears to stabilise and positive sentiment returns to the altcoin market.
Safe trading - The Team at Boss Crypto
...
Taken from the Boss Crypto VIP research channel at https://bosscrypto.co/
submitted by BawsCole to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Market Consolidation Driven By Bitcoin Whales May Cause Additional Turbulence

Market Consolidation Driven By Bitcoin Whales May Cause Additional Turbulence

The Percentage Of Bitcoin, Controlled By Crypto Whales Increased In 2019, Raising Chances Of Price Fluctuations
Crypto research company Coin Metrics noted that Bitcoin holders with over 1,000 BTC are consolidating the total market supply of coins. The research data shows 42,1 percent of all Bitcoin is in the hands of the so-called crypto whales, raising a flag of concern among small retail Bitcoin holders. In 2017, crypto whales controlled 37,9 percent of the total amount of circulating BTC coins. That’s a four percent increase, despite the massive sale by the whales in the bearish 2018.
Another key metric, according to crypto research company Flipside Crypto, is how much of the registered Bitcoin addresses are actively trading. It turns out just 3,5% of all BTC addresses are active, meaning that whales could provoke price swings.
“Such a situation implies few crypto whales could push the price down when selling, making the whole market swing down.”, John Griffin, professor at the University of Texas, stated.
Flipside Crypto also published their research on the top 1,000 Bitcoin addresses. Data shows a slight increase in the amount of BTC contained in these wallets. However, more than 27 million crypto wallets contain ten or less BTC, most of them – abandoned or forgotten.
Investor Aaron Brown noticed that despite the vast gap between the top Bitcoin holders and the “average Joe” in Bitcoin, addresses ranked from 10,000 to 100,000 are most likely to be in possession of individuals and companies that are not in the “Bitcoin-frenzy” and would easily part themselves with their Bitcoin belongings.
“Despite the crypto boom, such wallets, which are only 15% of the total amount of wallet addresses, would most probably sell their Bitcoin and search for other technologies. They are not emotionally attached to Bitcoin”, Brown added. The volatility issues are what keeps Bitcoin from mass adoption, according to the specialist.
The Bitcoin market may be speculative, but the world’s top cryptocurrency doubled from the lows of the bearish winter of 2018. Looking at price swings, however, Bitcoin suffered a 74% loss in value in 2018 but made a 1,400% bullish run at the end of 2017.
While the crypto market shows signs of maturing and stability, crypto experts are certain volatility would continue to put pressure on Bitcoin. Eric Stone, Flipside’s Head of Data Science, said that despite the calm situation nowadays, few enormous wallets could cause severe turbulence in the crypto sector.
Exchanges are mostly unregulated and lack auditing. If some of the crypto whales decide to manipulate the market, there is nothing to stop him”, Stone added.
submitted by Crypto_Browser to u/Crypto_Browser [link] [comments]

Square

1) Up 270% year to date 2) Implied Volatility Rank at the 85th percentile (likely due to bitcoin announcement?) 3) RSI=90 (overbought indicator)
Plus being the end of the year, i think people may take some profits. I like Square as a company but think its due for a slight pull back towards year end......put a bear call trade on for Januar........what do you guys think?
submitted by TTG2139 to investing [link] [comments]

Crypto-Currencies Are Poised To Radically Change Finance … And Reshape Nations

Crypto-Currencies Are Poised To Radically Change Finance … And Reshape Nations
Article by Forbes: Kurt Cagle & COGNITIVE WORLD In the 18th Century, a venture begun in England established an outpost in the New World around Hudson Bay. The Hudson Bay Company was given license by the crown to exploit the bounty of the Northernmost parts of North America, and eventually a trading network was built out, trading fur, woods, and mineral resources. This network manifested itself primarily through a series of forts that protected general stores, extending as far south and west as Oregon, along the Pacific Coast, forts that would in time become cities like Portland, Vancouver, Toronto and so forth.

https://preview.redd.it/wpegk0kit6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7a4300bc49b3ade91c544bdf0dc0677001ec863
An example of Hudson Bay Company Scrip WIKIPEDIA The Hudson Bay Company used its own special scrip within its territory, the scrip holding value because it could be traded for British pounds as well as establishing more or less standard prices for goods. When Canada was founded in 1867, it established its territory by buying the land from the HBC, and making HBC’s scrip fully convertible to the new Canadian Dollar. In effect, a privately held scrip became the de facto currency of a nation. Empires, kings and potentates have long coveted the right to put their face on coins, but until comparatively recently, the value of those coins was determined primarily by the assayed weight of the metal that made them up. Indeed, the Dutch, during the 16th century, actually scored their gold coins so that a person could break it apart into octants, from whence was derived the term “Pieces of eight” so beloved in pirate tales. They also created coins from the silver mine of Joachim’s Valley (‘Joachimsthal’ in Dutch) which were in turn heavily used by first the Spanish territories then eventually English North America, the name frequently shorted first to ‘Thaler’, and then via Spanish as ‘Dollar’.

https://preview.redd.it/rw38upgkt6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb4de09c64fb6fa7a70d2cde9a9e3cae4b8f2962
Pieces-of-Eight, so named because the Spanish dollar coin of the 1600s was frequently broken upon into eight bits or reals, which in time became known as pesos (pieces). JAMESTOWN REDISCOVERY Following the death of Louis the Fourteenth of France, the French economy was in tatters given the financial excesses of the Sun King. The Duke of Orleans, the regent of the new five-year-old King Louis the Fifteen, turned to a friend, Scottish financier John Law, for help. Law, for his part, made a proposal that had been tried on a smaller scale, but never really at a national level: the concept of creating a paper currency, backed by the government and in theory redeemable with silver. While the experiment worked for a little while, speculators made the currency unstable, which was then exacerbated by the government producing more Francs than it could support, causing the currency to crash and significantly diminishing the ability of France to compete in the colonization in North America. It also destabilized the French court by reducing the influence of the King over his aristocrats, many of whom had been severely burned in the crash, and not coincidentally laying the groundwork for the French Revolution several decades later. Despite this, as Europe went from Feudal vassalages to nation-states, the ability to control the minting of paper currency based upon its status as a promissory note became one of the key prerogatives of nations. It was one of the reasons, when the first American Confederation, created in the aftermath of the US Revolutionary War, realized they needed a stronger government, the one thing that the Federal government reserved to itself rather than allow to the states was the exclusive right to mint coinage and currency.

https://preview.redd.it/bloq70ept6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=af104c0e62286fbc3d2102b96c1ec2ba53ef851c
Currencies have long been the prerogative of nations, though that may be changing as electronic coinage hearkens back to most currencies’ merchantile roots. GETTY Fast-forward two hundred and fifty years, and you can see that history is in fact repeating itself. A currency system works by having a few essential characteristics: A note of currency must be unique and non-duplicatable. Currency must be readily redeemable — if not enough people will accept the currency as having a certain value, it cannot be used as a medium of exchange. Currency must be relatively stable — it holds roughly the same value over some time interval. These three conditions place some real constraints on currencies, though not always obvious ones. For instance, if you increase the supply of a given currency, you might think that it would dilute the value of that money. Maybe yes, maybe no. If demand is high for money, increasing the money supply may actually accelerate economic growth, though if demand for money is low, increasing the supply may simply cause inflation. If currency is only redeemable in certain places, then it has less utility as a store of value. If a currency has only half the value today that it had yesterday, then people will get rid of that currency quickly in favor of something that is more stable. It turns out, in fact, that most paper currencies don’t completely satisfy the above constraints over a long time period, and what’s worse, the relationship between money and value can be quite non-linear. This is because currency by itself represents buying power. A gallon of gas in 1971 cost twenty nine cents in most places. Today, that same gallon of gas costs $2.90. Ironically, a loaf of bread cost $.29 and $2.90 respectively as well. The average wage in 1971 was $10,000. Today, its $50,000. This is worth highlighting, though more from an economic rather than technical standpoint. Put in stark terms, the typical worker’s wages went up 400%, but the price of most goods went up 1000% percent over roughly the last fifty years (or, the money you earn is worth 60% less today than it was in 1971, relative to the cost of living). The actual utility of a gallon of gas has actually not changed much in that time, which means that what has changed is both buying power for a given amount of money, and the change in wages relative to the cost of goods. Why? That’s a topic for another time.

https://preview.redd.it/4dgrmrist6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b110124483a8b8d7a986c5f226e6ca9c6ff0115
Electronic currencies, such as BitCoin and Ethereum, rank high in their ability to guarantee uniqueness, but are struggling with exchangeability and are still very heavily influenced by speculators, making them less than ideal for stable currencies. GETTY IMAGES So, where do cryptocurrencies play into all of this? At the moment, of the three points highlighted above, cryptocurrencies arguably are really, really good with the first point, are getting better (though still not great) with the second point, but really suck on the last point. Consider this. One of the biggest arguments in favor of cryptocurrencies is that they are hard to forge. It’s possible — throw enough computation power at it and you could in fact do it, but the salient point is that the cost to do so likely outweighs the value of the coin. Now the downside to that is that many of the current mechanisms for determining uniqueness (such as mining prime numbers) are also very expensive, not just in terms of computational cycles but in terms of energy costs. It’s one of the reasons why a few of the primary coins actually are too large by themselves to be used for currency — you have to divide a coin up to say a 1000 different micro-coins to get to the point where you can buy a cup of coffee and a sweet roll at Starbucks, and this in turn still requires effective uniqueness algorithms. However, even with weaker algorithms for division, such micro-coins are still orders of magnitude harder to forge than your average US $20 bill, which is far and away the most popular currency in the world in terms of forgery. However, this point is actually becoming less and less of an issue for the simple reason that paper currency itself is becoming obsolete, except among the very poor (who often have difficulty in being able to set up bank accounts). For much of the latter twentieth century, credit cards made significant inroads in eliminating paper currency, and most recently, the introduction of chipped cards, both credit and debit, have significantly reduced the incidences of fraud. The bigger issue today is online card fraud, though even there, the introduction of electronic wallets (and the growing liability that retailers are facing with each hacking incident via class action suits) are spurring much better encryption of data, as well as better control by consumers. This is not to say that credit card fraud isn’t still a problem, but it is a problem that shows signs of abating. Another, perhaps far more reaching consequence of the rise of credit cards, debit cards, digital rewards cards, gift cards and EBTs has been that it has been destroying the physicality of currency, and with it, one of the last vestiges of control that most nations have over their currency. The reason for this is simple. Today, it is possible to set up foreign exchange transfer accounts in which a given currency is in Yen, or Euros, or Pounds, and draw upon them as readily as you can a US funds account. You can set up a crypto account in much the same way, and can even, with some creative work, set up accounts that let you play currency arbitrage across multiple such accounts. If Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple or Facebook (or their counterparts in other countries) set up their own digital currency, you could do the same thing. Amazon is actually creating a highly synergistic ecosystem that is nearly a full bore economy in its own right.

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In ten to twenty years time your paycheck could very well be made in private e-currency rather than a country’s native currency, which will send shockwaves in political circles. GETTY Put yourself ten years in the future. Amazon (as an example) puts out a cryptocurrency called the bezo (one bezo, two bezos, ….). You can continue to set up a US dollar account for Amazon prime, but you can also open up a bezos account, based upon a blockchain like construct under the control of Amazon. Prices begin to creep up when measured in US dollars, because the US economy has for the most part had net positive price inflation even during recessions, but prices in bezos stay fixed. Other companies look at this and offer the option of paying their employees in bezos. Some are resistant, but especially younger employees take the plunge, and after a while, older employees see that their net buying power continues to decline while the ones in the Amazon ecosystem are seeing wage power stability, and you see a shift as older employees begin to do the same thing. Other companies do this on their own, but discover that they don’t have quite enough people in their network to maintain stability, and so they reach out and affiliate themselves with the Amazon network. Banks have taken notice, and all of a sudden you see Amazon currency replacing the US Dollar in more and more transactions, many of them for millions or even billions of dollars. And then Amazon moves the Amazon Currency Network to the Cayman Islands. Overnight, the United States sees 35% of its tax base disappear. Too many people are no longer using US Dollars for transactions. The US Debt, which has been a ticking time bomb for decades, goes off as the US can no longer even pretend to service its deficits, let alone the total debt. States, given the conundrum of having a central Federal government that has become increasingly hostile and demanding (while providing less and less value for the tax money that their citizenry have paid) vs. working with a more stable currency and more autonomy, begin to think the unthinkable at a policy level: choosing to join a different political alliance based upon a common protocol for sharing currencies.

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One very distinct possibility of the intermixing between private and public e-currencies is the possibility that it could very well exacerbate an already growing divide along geopolitical lines. GETTY Another scenario can be envisioned. Recently, Walmart announced that they had a patent on a new blockchain currency, with the implications that they would be issuing a currency within the relatively near future. Amazon and Walmart are seen as competitors in the general goods sector, and while there is some overlap they tend to service different regions (and their customers often have very divergent political leanings). Over time you end up with two competing currencies, the Bezo and the Walton. Each of which provides a premium within their respective networks and a double penalty within the opposite network — the double being the fact that in order to convert from Bezos to Waltons, you would have to convert one currency to USDs and then to the other currency, with fees at each transaction point (something often happens in existing currency exchanges, where you have to find a common currency to exchange between two different currencies that don’t otherwise have exchange rates). Over time, the economies diverge, with frustrations mounting as the Bezo and the Walton respond to different economic strategies, and changes in political power in Washington DC bring with it a distinct preference for one currency or the other, with all that this implies for policy. Attempting to peg either of the private currencies to the dollar ends up with a situation similar to that which the European Union experience in 2008, when economic policy that was right for the northern countries with strong industrial bases proved ruinous for the southern countries that were primarily agrarian in nature (and is in fact a part of the current problem between red and blue America). What is likely to happen in this scenario is the rise of compacts — agreements between states that standardize upon specific policies regarding economic action, taxation, representation, immigration, public programs, defense, ecological policy, education and so on. Put another way, the currency networks that emerge (and it is likely they will be networked, not just one single currency) will begin looking and acting more and more like autonomous countries. With this comes the reduction of power in Washington, DC and the federal government as states hew more closely to their compact alliances. Now, to be clear, these are both hypothetical scenarios, and I’m using Amazon and Walmart here just to illustrate the point. Nor are these the only scenarios that may play out. It’s also worth noting that what is at issue is not so much cryptocurrency by itself as it is the ability of currency networks to effectively capture the tax base of parts or all of a country. Will this result in civil war? Hard to say. We may very well end up in a situation where the US becomes a Confederation along the lines of Canada, with a weaker central government, a common defense agreement and stronger regional blocs. The US may split peacefully into several distinct regions based upon the degree of economic connectivity. It’s possible that smarter heads prevail and some agreement is worked out to keep the status quo. However, the likelihood of that decreases the more that mechanisms for separation get implemented, and eCurrencies, whether national based or privately based, have the potential to exacerbate an already stressed situation.

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One of the major issues that most eCoins have is that they are still highly unstable, due to a comparatively small pool of investors, the potential for volatile speculation, and the potential that a government could make such transactions illegal. GETTY The primary mitigating factor from this happening now is the lack of stability of crypto-currencies, which is something of a chicken and egg problem. Stability ultimately comes from the number of participants involved, which in turn determines the degree to which speculation can take place within a currency. Speculation and stability are counter-weighted — most speculators prefer an asset class to be volatile, because such volatility can make for higher returns with less capital, though it can also lead to higher losses. You can speculate with stable currency (as George Soros managed to do successfully against the British pound in the 1970s) but it requires deep pockets and a great deal of leverage, and being unsuccessful can ruin you. Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies are still very unstable primarily because they lack both the installed base of users and because they are not yet fully convertible or redeemable. It is arguable whether any of the first generation of ICOs will ever meet that bar alone, though that changes once you begin seeing mergers and adoptions between ICOs and large financial or network concerns. This also moots one of the other major selling points that ICO promoters themselves try to make. No currency is going to survive if transactions in that currency remain anonymous, and keeping such transactions anonymous will become increasingly difficult over time. The reason for this is relatively simple — any transaction has real world implications, those implications can be tracked, and once one thread of a transaction begins to get picked apart, then it becomes possible to determine how these connect to other transactions. Government opacity (which is one form of anonymity) will keep many existing ICOs from ever being recognized as legitimate, and may very well be seen as perfect channels for money laundering and black market transactions, putting these ICOs under deep scrutiny. It is likely that currencies based upon (semi-) transparent block-chains (something you’re increasingly seeing developed by financial institutions) will likely overtake the anonymous block-chains currently being deployed.

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The future of finance (and of bank accounts) may very well be that a typical account is, in fact, an index made up of different e-currencies, both public and private. GETTY In the longer term (fifteen to twenty years), it is likely that the average consumer will likely not interact much at all with ICOs directly. Instead, what I see happening is that banks (and bank-like-entities, such as credit unions) will controls portfolios of currencies and accounts will then consist of baskets of different coins on various networks. Consumers can then determine the mix of their coin holdings, and can designate the default currencies they wish to be paid in (or pay out) when they make a financial transaction. However, at the micro-level, these networks and baskets will be treated in much the same way national currencies do today, with the added wrinkle that these private currencies can push and pull on the national currencies at a level unprecedented until now. What happens when the Bezo replaces the Japanese Yen (or the US Dollar) as the primary instrument for carry trades. What if the Iranian eDinar becomes the preferred currency for pricing oil, or an international incident causes investors to buy up Chinese eYuan and sell the USD, raising the potential for price increases in the United States (or vice versa). What will almost certainly happen is that the distinction between international corporations and nations, already somewhat blurry, will erode even more with time. Businesses will increasingly find themselves having to establish comprehensive foreign policies, fielding security forces and dealing with issues that traditionally have been the domain of countries. At the same time, fundamental questions, including the deceptively difficult one of what constitutes citizenship, will become pressing sooner than we’d like to believe. The upshot of this is that Bitcoins and related electronic currencies are likely here to stay, will become progressively more influential in both political and economic policy as they become more stable, and will almost certainly introduce stresses and potential breaking points in economies globally throughout the twenty-first century.
submitted by GTE_IO to u/GTE_IO [link] [comments]

A word of caution. All major exchanges are not even fiat gateways. The actual fiat in the system is likely grossly overestimated. Crypto is decoupled from USD. Implications.

First of all i should disclose i'm fully out of crypto since last Sunday, i'm just waiting for my EUR wire from Bitstamp as that has been my gateway since 2014. I would like to thank bitcoinmarkets for the good times, i've been around for a long time but not really participating that much, and even when I did i used throwaways. I decided to make this topic as a warning and to explain why I got out and why I think you should be very careful.
So we have a situation in which:
1) 80% or more of trading is in USDT (tether)
2) Coinmarket cap is an accomplice to Bitfinex which implies USDT-USD parity. To which degree this is intentional, irresponsibility or just incompetence I would not know. Basically conimarketplace lumps all USDT trades and prices with actual USD trades and prices. If you go there https://coinmarketcap.com/ and try to select PAIR, you get THIS. No USDT, even though most exchanges are USDT. Even if most of liquidity is USDT. Again, this is a major factor in implying parity along with what Bitfinex/Tether try to do. As if this wasn't enough, they also willingly or stupidly inflate USDT price itself. I have to remind you Coinmarketcap is THE point of reference for all cryptosphere. It's oscilating Alexa rank is 100-400. Betfair (real life gambling company) for example uses coinmarket price average for their own system. etc.
3) If/when tethebitfinex crashes, not only does bitfinex crash, it will crash all crypto pairings using USDT on all exchanges using USDT.
4) There are very few fiat gateways. Until recently I assumed the major(top) exchanges have some kind of fiat pairing. I mean.. any respectable exchange would have some way of actually getting money in and out, right? I didn't even think to check. Well, they don't. Literally all the major exchanges are USDT (and/or another stablecoin or proprietary coin) and nothing else. No USD, no EUR, no fiat whatsoever. https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/ . Only the 11th one has actual USD pairing. Didn't check lower but most exchanges don't have fiat. I did a full check on Binance myself as it's the biggest exchange and I had an account there for lulz. There is no fiat.
What does this mean? It means that an allegedly 200 BILLION market cap of all crypto has a fiat gateway of only a couple of exchanges. Most exchanges not using any fiat are not only immune to the risk, they offload risk on the much smaller exchanges that are fiat gateways. And on clients, of course. The cash side of the actual exchanges would need to have to siphon even a fraction of this are unimaginable. If any of these exchanges use crypto to evaluate their own fiat balance (it is illegal but crypto is hardly regulated or audited), they're fucked.
5) If the first four points looked bad, this one is by far the worst. The system is running on a presumed liquidity provided by Tether and on presumed USD capital. Even if tether was legit it's just 2b USD rolling 200b USD. And that 200b USD is just presumed quantity of USD that is in. We don't know how much USD is in the system, there could be and there probably is way less, as over the past 8 years or so crypto ran mostly on funny exchanges that could "provide" whatever USD value they wanted. More so, even if they went bust, people would usually get to withdraw crypto and store it on some other exchange. Even when an exchange was slowly withering, people just pulled out crypto and the exchange actual liquidity was hardly tested out. Or btc-e crashing or MtGox crashing. Their cash side crashed but "crypto" side did not crash. It was bailed out so to speak. So we have crypto running around that should've been worth 1/10 or 1/100 of it's price but it's instead running on par value with crypto on legit exchanges. This grossly inflates price.
Even if tether (or other stablecoin) is legit, it can be drained in a couple of hours. What happens to the pairings of crypto/USDT? People just trade one bitcoin at the presumable price of 6k for 6k USDT that are 100% backed but have no value because there's no USD in the treasury? Who is stupid enough to deposit USD there to get stuck waiting for another fool to bail him out by getting himself stuck?
edit: [Even if tether is 1%, it holds much more assumed/created value, which is the actual issue. Look at it this way. It only adds 1 cent to a real dollar market buy order for example. Each buy order made in a system that implies USDT:USD parity is now worth 1% more than a true USD purchase. Now repeat that buy order millions of times. It's not 1.01+1.01 times 1 million. It's more like 1.01$1.000.000 Each added value comes from USDT injection and USDT has to be liquid on the way down as well. It's added value to the market value is NOT it's market cap. That's a shitfest all "stablecoins" inject into the market, no matter how backed or audited they are.]
As I was saying, all the exchanges that are not holding any fiat are immune to any crash or actual liability. If/when cryptos fail, they'll give you back any number of cryptos/stablecoins you had, even if they're worthless. It's just entries in a database. If/when USDT fails, all it's corresponding crypto prices will go to infinity. If you're holding any USDT, you can't get out of the exchange because 1 btc will cost infinity. If you're in any margin position, no matter where your stops are you'll get margin called instead, as stops are just suggestions in high/extreme volatility. You can't get out through fiat cause there's no fiat.
Your only hope is you were actually holding crypto and they don't block withdrawals. Best case scenario you move your crypto to a fiat gateway exchange and hope to cash out there as fast as possible because it will have had become evident that cryptos were overvalued because of USDT (and even hypothetical USD in the system). Will most likely be too late as people that were already in fiat gateway exchanges already sold/cashed out. There will be enormous sell pressure. And no buyers.
The whole stablecoin issuance is idiotic and I just hope it crashes now and we won't see another bubble built on presumed capital, cause that will hurt way more people. All of this is a mess. Crypto is completely decoupled from real fiat now. The potential money that are in the crypto sphere is exponentially greater than available money to trade out of. Or maybe we should be grateful for stablecoins for finally crashing a system that would've crashed anyway in the long run.
submitted by 5ty54y5yh45 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency: Part 3b - Pricing and liquidity

*Introductions: I'm joskye. A cryptocurrency investor and SDC holder. *
...
Hi again. This is the third part in our ongoing series on how to trade better and determine intelligent investments in cryptocurrency for the future.
Part 3b continues where I left off with a discussion about price metrics specifically, what determines the price and the importance of liquidity:
...
The day traders:
As I mentioned in my previous article, as of writing almost every cryptocurrency is determined purely by speculative value.
Thus the absolute price of a given cryptocurrency is determined solely by the day traders and specifically the last price it was agreed that currency would be sold at with confirmation of that price by a buyer who bought it.
People say lots of things determine the price; marketcap, liquidity, value proposition, revenues generated by the coin, the number of said coin in circulation but ultimately it comes down to the number of buyers and number of sellers competing for that coin.
Perhaps the other thing is the size of said market relative to the money held by the players in it.
For instance in cryptocurrency Bitcoin is still the biggest player in the game. It carries a per unit price of $900 per coin. There are currently 16,090,137 (16 million) coins in circulation giving it a total marketcap value of [$900 x 16090137 =] $14481123300 or 14.48 billion USD.
Shadowcash looks even more meagre compared to the total cryptocurrency marketcap with only 0.048% of the total cryptocurrency sphere.
To any Shadowcash holders despairing at this point, relax. There are over 707 cryptocurrencies trading as of writing and SDC holds the 27th ranking in terms of market cap. In such a competitive field, filled with scams that's pretty good. Moreso when you consider that SDC is a legitimate technology and is currently probably very undervalued.
...
Lets look at the rich list for bitcoin:
Why did I just talk about this?
In cryptocurrency I see this happening on the markets all the time. Indeed market manipulation effects every single cryptocurrency eventually.
...
Market manipulation!
Large holders of valuable, high marketcap coins will often make multiple small volume purchases of less valuable, low marketcap coins. Often this will follow announcements regarding developments in that low marketcap coin.
Low volume buying in a market with low daily trading volume can gradually drive up the price attracting an influx of buyers into that coin; often they will make larger volume purchases of it which helps drive up the price much further. This will trigger a further chain of buyers experiencing FOMO (fear of missing out, detailed in Part 2) who will drive up the price even further. The price will pump. Often will smaller cap cryptocurrencies this may result in a sudden 20, 40, 60 or even +100% increase in value often over a very short time space (1-2 days, 1-2 weeks maximum).
The only way to discern if the sudden rise in coin value is due to pre-rigged market manipulation is to look at:
You are looking for organic, gradual growth based on a solid value proposition. Sudden large spikes in value should make you pause and wonder if it's worth waiting for a gradual correction (organic drop) in price before entering your buy order.
Do not fall for a pump and dump. Stick to the lessons covered in previous parts of this guide (especially part 3a and 2) and you will be much less likely to lose money in the long run trading and investing in cryptocurrencies.
...
The pattern of change on daily trading volume, the order book and liquidity:
Lets look at SDC and Bitcoin again. This time we are going to compare the daily trading volume (last 24 hours) in USD.
I'd just like to use this opportunity to point out and reinforce the idea that day traders not holders dictate the daily price of an asset. I'd also like to point out daily global trading volume on Forex is $4800 billion which makes Bitcoin a very small fish in the broader arena of global finance and trade i.e. Bitcoin is still very vulnerable to all the price manipulation tactics and liquidity issues I am going to be describing in this article by bigger players with richer pockets.
The daily trading volume also gives you an idea of how much fiat currency you can invest into a given cryptocurrency before you suddenly shift the price.
A sudden rise in coin price heavily out of proportion to the rise in daily trading volume should be the first sign to alert you to a pump & dump scam.
Daily trading volume should show a steady increase over time with sustained buy support at new price levels; this is a good marker of organic, sustainable growth.
...
For more detail you can now look at the depth chart:
The depth chart is very useful to know how much fiat currency is required to cause the spot price of a given cryptocurrency to rise or fall by a given amount.
NB the price of most cryptocurrencies is expressed in Bitcoin because it has the largest market cap and daily trading volume of all cryptocurrencies by a very large margin and because with a few exceptions (Ethereum, Monero) most cryptocurrencies do not have routes to directly purchase via fiat currency without first purchasing Bitcoin.
Liquidity is super important. People often complain about a market lacking liquidity but that is often because they are trading in fiat volumes which far exceed the daily trading fiat volumes of the cryptocurrency they are referring to. If you are investing or trading in a cryptocurrency, always factor in the your personal liquidity and need for liquidity relative to that of the cryptocurrency you are investing in. In other words don't expect to make a profit next day selling 'cryptocurrency x' if the size your single buy order composes >90% of the buy orders on the market for 'cryptocurrency x' that day (indeed in such a scenario be very prepared to sell at a loss next day if you absolutely have to)!
There are certain patterns on a depth chart that make me believe a significant, sustained price rise is imminent: One example occurs when there is a very large volume of buy orders (>25% of total buy volume within 5% of current price) very close to the current (spot) price, and a very large number of sell orders close to but significantly above the spot price (approx 25% total sell volume within 10% of current price) and especially if the total buy order volume is a significantly higher percentage than it has previously been. This simply indicates high demand at current price which may soon outstrip supply. Again I stress that these patterns can be manipulated easily by wealthy traders.
...
The order book is another way of looking at the depth chart and allows you to see the specific transactions occurring that compose daily trading volume by the second!
I find it useful because it allows me to identify:
...
The price charts:
Discussions about price charts could be endless. I'm not going to go into too much detail, mostly because I'm an investor who believes the value proposition, good consistent development, decent marketing and communications will ultimately trump spot prices and adverse (or positive) short term price trends in the future.
...
The news cycle:
...
Other interesting points: The 'coin x' scenario and the ridiculousness of marketcap:
'Coin X' is an imaginary hypothetical coin. There are only 10 in circulation. It has no value proposition beyond it's speculative value i.e. it will never generate a revenue independent of it's speculative value.
I'd like to point out the similarities between ZCash and 'coin x' (especially during it's launch).
...
Lessons:
...
Finally why am I writing this?
I mean I just spoke openly about how SDC and indeed any cryptocurrencies (or purely speculative assets) price can be manipulated in the short term.
Well SDC has an incredible value proposition that could generate and attract large amounts of non-speculative fiat currency into it's ecosystem. I already covered that in part 3a (https://www.reddit.com/Shadowcash/comments/5lhh6m/the_intelligent_investors_guide_to_cryptocurrency/).
For this reason I think the short term speculative pump and dumps in SDC will eventually be replaced by a more sustained, larger buy support. I suspect this will occur when the marketplace is released and certain other announcements are released.
For this reason I declare my opinion that Shadowcash is the best cryptocurrency investment of 2016 and I believe it will be again by March 2017.
...
References:
1. Coinmarketcap rankings: https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ 2. Coinmarketcap daily trading volumes https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/volume/24-hou 3. Bitinfocharts - Top 100 Richest Bitcoin addresses: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html 4. Crypto ID - Shadowcash Rich list: https://chainz.cryptoid.info/sdc/#!rich 
...
Disclaimer: All prices and values given are as of time of writing (Midday 08-Jan-2016). I am not responsible for your financial decisions, nor am I advising you take a particular financial position. Rather I am sharing my experiences and hoping you form your own opinions and insights from them. Full disclosure: I have long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Shadowcash (SDC), ICONOMI (ICN), Augur (REP) and Digix (DGD).
submitted by joskye to Shadowcash [link] [comments]

A word of caution. All major exchanges are not even fiat gateways. The actual fiat in the system is likely grossly overestimated. Crypto is decoupled from USD. Implications.

So we have a situation in which:
1) 80% or more of trading is in USDT (tether)
2) Coinmarket cap is an accomplice to Bitfinex which implies USDT-USD parity. To which degree this is intentional, irresponsibility or just incompetence I would not know. Basically conimarketplace lumps all USDT trades and prices with actual USD trades and prices. If you go there https://coinmarketcap.com/ and try to select PAIR, you get THIS. No USDT, even though most exchanges are USDT. Even if most of liquidity is USDT. Again, this is a major factor in implying parity along with what Bitfinex/Tether try to do. As if this wasn't enough, they also willingly or stupidly inflate USDT price itself. I have to remind you Coinmarketcap is THE point of reference for all cryptosphere. It's oscilating Alexa rank is 100-400. Betfair (real life gambling company) for example uses coinmarket price average for their own system. etc.
3) If/when tethebitfinex crashes, not only does bitfinex crash, it will crash all crypto pairings using USDT on all exchanges using USDT.
4) There are very few fiat gateways. Until recently I assumed the major(top) exchanges have some kind of fiat pairing. I mean.. any respectable exchange would have some way of actually getting money in and out, right? I didn't even think to check. Well, they don't. Literally all the major exchanges are USDT (and/or another stablecoin or proprietary coin) and nothing else. No USD, no EUR, no fiat whatsoever. https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/ . Only the 11th one has actual USD pairing. Didn't check lower but most exchanges don't have fiat. I did a full check on Binance myself as it's the biggest exchange and I had an account there for lulz. There is no fiat.
What does this mean? It means that an allegedly 200 BILLION market cap of all crypto has a fiat gateway of only a couple of exchanges. Most exchanges not using any fiat are not only immune to the risk, they offload risk on the much smaller exchanges that are fiat gateways. And on clients, of course. The cash side of the actual exchanges would need to have to siphon even a fraction of this are unimaginable. If any of these exchanges use crypto to evaluate their own fiat reserves (it is illegal but crypto is hardly regulated or audited), they're fucked.
5) If the first four points looked bad, this one is by far the worst. The system is running on a presumed liquidity provided by Tether and on presumed USD capital. Even if tether was legit it's just 2b USD rolling 200b USD. And that 200b USD is just presumed quantity of USD that is in. We don't know how much USD is in the system, there could be and there probably is way less, as over the past 8 years or so crypto ran mostly on funny exchanges that could "provide" whatever USD value they wanted. More so, even if they went bust, people would usually get to withdraw crypto and store it on some other exchange. Even when an exchange was slowly withering, people just pulled out crypto and the exchange actual liquidity was hardly tested out. Or btc-e crashing or MtGox crashing. Their cash side crashed but "crypto" side did not crash. It was bailed out so to speak. So we have crypto running around that should've been worth 1/10 or 1/100 of it's price but it's instead running on par value with crypto on legit exchanges. This grossly inflates price.
Even if tether is legit, it can be drained in a couple of hours. What happens to the pairings of crypto/USDT? People just trade one bitcoin at the presumable price of 6k for 6k USDT that are 100% backed but have no value because there's no USD in the treasury? Who is stupid enough to deposit USD there to get stuck waiting for another fool to bail him out by getting himself stuck?
Even if tether is 1% it holds much more assumed value, which is the actual issue. Let's say only adds 1 cent to a real dollar market buy order for example. Each buy order made in a system that implies USDT:USD parity is now worth 1% more than a true USD purchase. Now repeat that buy order millions of times. Each added value comes from USDT injection and USDT has to be liquid on the way down as well. It's added value to the market value is not it's market cap.
As I was saying, all the exchanges that are not holding any fiat are immune to any crash or actual liability. If/when cryptos fail, they'll give you back any number of cryptos/stablecoins you had, even if they're worthless. It's just entries in a database. If/when USDT fails, all it's corresponding crypto prices will go to infinity. If you're holding any USDT, you can't get out of the exchange because 1 btc will cost infinity. If you're in any margin position, no matter where your stops are you'll get margin called instead, as stops are just suggestions in high/extreme volatility. You can't get out through fiat cause there's no fiat.
Your only hope is you were actually holding crypto and they don't block withdrawals. Best case scenario you move your crypto to a fiat gateway exchange and hope to cash out there as fast as possible because it will have had become evident that cryptos were overvalued because of USDT (and even hypothetical USD in the system). Will most likely be too late as people that were already in fiat gateway exchanges already sold/cashed out. There will be enormous sell pressure. And no buyers.
The whole stablecoin issuance is idiotic and I just hope it crashes now and we won't see another bubble built on presumed capital, cause that will hurt way more people. All of this is a mess. Crypto is completely decoupled from real fiat now. The potential money that are in the crypto sphere is exponentially greater than available money to trade out of. Or maybe we should be grateful for stablecoins for finally crashing a system that would've crashed anyway in the long run.
submitted by 5ty54y5yh45 to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

FAQs

FAQs - All Frequently Asked Questions Posted and Updated Here
Q: I have lost massive sums holding various cryptocurrencies since leading coins such as Ethereum have fallen -88% peak-to-trough so far in 2018 and it looks as if it will fall further given the overpriced nature of Ethereum. Vitalik Buterin, the creator of Ethereum said himself that the cryptospace is way too overvalued. That said, why do I want my money tied up on your platform for 9 months? What are the advantages? How much risk am I taking?
A: With Hansecoin, multiple investors will be able to own a piece of the capital gain potential and yield of real estate, some land, an apartment, or an entire apartment complex. The asset provides a floor to the price and increases stability versus speculative tokens.
We are building out the world's first tokenisation platform that will be compliant with regulations. The first project Use Case when secured may deliver underlying yields of 7 to 11.4% or higher, potential capital gains, and provide bonuses and access to future project tokens at an attractive discount versus those joining after the Vesting Period. There is a revolutionary future in its application across multiple asset classes. Notably, this tokenisation approach may become a template for asset backed token projects.
With proof of concept at hand and construction started, the project shall be scaled up as several additional hard asset projects are in the queue and the platform can be white labelled. Our platform offers a replacement tool for the transaction-cost-inefficient closed-end fund structures or venture capital transactions while remaining small, solid, compact and in full regulatory compliance.
Reduced Risk: We are immune to the direction of cryptospace. Even if Ethereum were to go to zero, our token would still be valid and contractually binding. In light of the steep losses in Ethereum and other coins, the participant can stop the hemorrhaging by locking in their cryptocurrencies at a fixed rate in euros for the next 9 months while taking comfort in knowing the above benefits apply, ie, yields, capital gains, bonuses, future project access at a discount, etc. Further, the potential participation in prime residential real estate located a brief commute of 15 minutes from the city center in Tallinn, Estonia carries low risk given the history of otherwise equivalent, yet in terms of quality, design and attractiveness, inferior real estate projects launched in the neighbourhood which still sold out ahead of schedule. Indeed, the demographics of families in formation together with Estonia leading the EU in economic growth is a powerful combination contributing to the breakneck speeds of development in Tallinn.
Estonia has continuously the highest average GDP in the EU (if you compare the current members from 1994 to 2018) and thus is the EU’s fastest growing country. Estonia has been billed as the world’s leading digital nation given its pioneer status of its digital ID card program, the spread of free and ultra high speed WiFi across the country, being the pond from where Skype and Pipedrive sprung, and more. Today, its welcoming position on blockchain technologies, equivalent to that of Switzerland, as well as its e-Residency program is well known. e-Residency enables businesses to transact goods and services regardless of geographic location with the digital signature capacity known from the ID card program. Estonia’s regulators are sincerely collaborative, open for discussion, and evidently working with substantial commitment to create a fair system of regulation, monitoring and enforcement of the current legislation. They are comparatively solution driven so as to remain welcoming to the blockchain community. This explains why Estonia has the highest number of ICOs launched per capita and is ranked #5 worldwide.
From the CEO of CoinMetro, Kevin Murcko: “Although I get approached quite often to advise on ICO projects I rarely bite. Most, while they may be great 'back of napkin ideas' they usually lack substance and their teams, while sometimes quite elaborate, lack the drive, hunger, and experience to take a great idea and turn it into a great business. HanseCoin is different. The company focuses on a very specific use case for tokenization, the Asset-Backed Token, and it puts it to the test.
Not only does it provide a hedge against crypto volatility but it puts that money toward the creation of a regulator-approved platform for tokenizing any hard asset.
As a member of the Supervisory Board, I helped design the tokenization structure and I believe there is a revolutionary future in its application across multiple asset classes.
As As CEO of CoinMetro is it my job to ensure that we are constantly on the lookout for ways to gain market share and add value to not only our platform but the whole of the crypto ecosystem ... Essentially we are talking about an extension of the ICOexpress, call it a 'module', one of many in the works.”

Q: How are you compliant? Many ICOs fail to be even minimally compliant.
A: First, this is not a typical ICO but this structure represents the next evolutionary stage in asset financing in the cryptospace. We are one of if not the world’s first actual asset backed token (ABT) ICO backed by real estate. Together with our counsel and our partners from Coin Metro, we have stayed in lock-step with the regulators here in Estonia to ensure that regardless of future regulatory decisions made, due to the versatility of the project structure, it will remain compliant without that adversely affecting the business. Our token remains a utility token as demonstrated by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) as it is neither a security, a debenture, nor a money market instrument. Still, we are prepared to issue a security token in the future should it become a suitable option and make sense to our expansion. Albeit that from our discussion with the relevant authorities it seems unlikely today Estonia may well pass legislation in this regard. Most importantly, leading companies are connected to our platform and its first project: we have Capital Mill, a leading developer and asset manager, as the real estate project manager, Uusmaa Kinnisvarabüro, the oldest and largest brokerage firm in Estonia as the residential sales agent, SWECO Projekt as the engineering company, 1Partner, a leading valuation company, as our appraiser, Telora AS as our supervisor, Studiomark as our architectural firm, and leading Estonian construction firms allowing the project to be built on time and in suitable quality for the residential clients.

Q: Is VPAT compliant? Does VPAT obey regulation? What about the other tokens PPT and VBT?
A: VPAT is an island, disconnected, and not tradable. Is it non-transferrable thus not a security. VPAT is heavily vetted and all VPAT holders are registered via AML/KYC with CoinMetro. Should our Issuing Company decide to issue another token (PPT, etc), that token may become tradeable and subject to regulatory law at that point.
There is an inherent difference and segregation of the VPAT from the potential PPT or VBT tokens. At the end of 9 months, the VPATs are burned, swapped, or extended and only then are PPTs issued. VPAT holders get various bonuses and preferred issuance of PPTs.
The VPAT is a centralised virtual token which results in a receipt issued to the VPAT participants (like a voucher). It is not an Ethereum based ERC distributed token unlike the PPT which may become subject to the legal, technical and regulatory environment.
As always, we will comply with any future legal, technical, and regulatory law set forth.

Q: What are the advantages of your platform?
A: Our platform offers a replacement tool for a variety of transaction cost inefficient transaction structures. The unwieldy closed-end funds of yesteryear simply front load developments with heavy hand costs for management and distribution. They typically start at around 10 million euros. Friends & family and crowd funding asset capital raises are typically limited to 1.5 – to at best 2 ¼ million euros. Our platform enables a far more efficient and less costly way for anyone who wishes to tokenise a project and raise capital between 1.5 and 10 million euros for their hard asset project, including but not limited to real estate. Blockchain simplifies and facilitates transactions by removing redundant layers.

Q: Future plans to expand?
A: An asset backed tokenisation does not end with standard real estate. This can also be done with other associated hard assets such as factories which include identifiable, traceable and productive machinery and equipment. Indeed, the founders and their partners are themselves invested in industrial assets, farming and agritech. We believe that such capital intensive segments are ideal candidates for subsequent, larger asset backed tokenisation capital raises when the concept with its technology and documentation is proven.
Eventually, HanseCoin, subject to project success, markets and regulation, may even become an issuing house with an investment advisory license. We will also enable others to white label our product since a number of projects have expressed deep interest. Indeed, as stated in the above article, a number of notable voices in the blockchain space such as Multicoin Capital partner Kyle Samani have said, "Using blockchains, you can securitize any asset for 1/100th the cost.” According to Prof. Stephen McKeon of the University of Oregon, "We will undoubtedly see tokenized real estate securities in 2018." An analyst at Apex Token Fund went on to explain, "A new level of liquidity is created when tokenizing traditional assets. This liquidity makes it faster and easier to rebalance a portfolio as the market changes."

Q: Please explain unpaid taxes to the Estonian government as raised here: https://www.reddit.com/CoinMetro/comments/9lyjie/comment/e7g8ws6
A: First, Tiskre Residentsid paid its October land taxes. The company had EUR 3,407.31 land tax to pay which EMTA demands on Oct 1, and we had scheduled to pay them alongside TSD declaration by Oct 10. Notably, we paid it today ahead of time. There is no tax debt and we would expect this to be reflected with the usual delay at sources such as ‘Inforegister’.
Second, Reval Grundwert is a family venture which arranges services to group entities including concept and implementation design, engineering and supervision, planning, family investment. A previous accountant miscalculated and misrepresented two smaller tax filings for which she taken to account and court. The restatement and reconciliation is underway with EMTA.

Q: How do you securitize the asset? Is it asset backed at the beginning?
A: The VPAT token is issued and provides a receipt as noted in the info memo. Funds are employed for the project platform infrastructure/software development and to secure the use case. The owners contribute the land into the asset company at a EUR 459,810 or a 15.4% discount to appraised market value to effectively sponsor the platform development for the Use Case even ahead of the full raise and the potential PPT issuance. The externally appraised value only reflects a sale as is: no potential, no expected value increases, it is considered conservative. Initially, the Issuer provides a deposit to the Asset Company owners in lieu of the irrevocable undertaking to, in the future, enter into the contracts. The deposit in this instance covers 90% of the fixed asset price. All-in the relevant discount to fair market value is thus 23.8% which should be considered a substantial buffer.
From the closing of the hard floor raise through the VPAT, the Issuer by securing itself with the future documentation in escrow, irrevocable undertakings locked in, and a pledge over the asset company's shares, is collateralised throughout its infrastructure development phase. Even the VPAT is an asset backed token.
Note, in the unlikely event that the tokenisation were to fail with no regulatorily compliant tokenisation at hand or the Issuer to fail in its development, the Issuer would accelerate the share pledge against the Asset Company. The asset could be sold and even a fire sale should suffice to cover the Issuer's relevant risk exposure, a restructuring, rescission, or new development in light of the aformentioned large discount.
In case of questions please do not hesitate to ask.

Q: How long do actual building developments take? [USE CASE]
A: In a simplified form and besides weather conditions etc., individual buildings and their build out time depend on the building types of which there are 2 in sector 1 (one apartment, one row house), another one in sector 2 (simpler row houses) and again two types in sector 3 (apartment buildings) plus a kindergarten on the plot between 2 and 3. Some of them such as in sector 1 individually take between 6 and 7 months to build core and shell, and subject to the client package requirements (three pre-defined), the interior furnishing and fittings takes between 1 and 1.5 months. The row houses in sector 2 can be erected within 5-6 months, then interiors and the furnishing as above plus landscaping (seasonal). The affordable housing in sector 3 could be built in the same time frame for the simpler apartment buildings and about 11 months for a grouping of three which are best erected as an ensemble.
A time schedule has been defined by the accredited, experienced external project management firm with owners, engineers, architects, interior architects and reputable construction companies which shows the targeted build out rhythm with overlapping and parallel build-outs. You can find this information in the project model section p.30 onwards. If you have specific questions do not hesitate to contact us and we shall be glad to go through this in applicable detail with you.
If you look at the plots and the drone videos listed for the asset company you can see that infrastructure (road, electricity, gas, water, sewage and street lighting) has been built out already alongside sector 3 and 2. Key information and extensive descriptions are also at hand in the info memo.

Q: Are all incoming ETH converted to EUR immediately?
A: Yes, though subject to market conditions. For example, the time it took to get sufficient confirmations was considerably longer in December 2017 when the crypto market was spiking. Until our minimum target of 2.281671m EUR is received, the deposit required to secure the projects initial use case, all incoming ETH is converted to EUR. Once this amount is surpassed, Hansecoin reserves the right to hold qualities of ETH as it sees fit based in its internal risk management policies.

Q: What happens if the soft cap for your asset raise is not met?
A: I presume you are referring to the hard floor of EUR 3.275 M as a fall-back rather than the soft or target cap. Were that hard floor fail to be reached, the software and platform infrastructure development would have to be carried on by HanseCoin preferably with its community in parallel to progressing with the road map, however, after an extension window of e.g. another 10, 15 or even 30 days were to run out before reaching the hard floor, and if no restructuring of the agreements with the asset owners could be agreed upon (deposit levels, timing), the development would have to carry on without securing the use case. The latter would remain an obligation of the owners to develop without HanseCoin. In turn, in such an unlikely event, HanseCoin would have to secure another Use Case for which it has two more assets at hand in the same attractive area, one in a comparable development stage and one at an earlier stage. Both would allow for collateralisation and lower deposit levels so that a replacement would be a suitable option. As stated in the info memo if less (as in not enough to entertain any of the other options) is raised until a future PPT issuance on the basis of the Hansecoin platform, the VPAT may have to be rescinded.
Notably, the aforementioned time frame and cascade of options should, from our perspective, allow HanseCoin sufficient capacity to attain sufficient commitment from VPAT partners and progress with the Asset Company on mutually agreeable terms.

Q: What if you can't get approved to go on with the development, or when the approval is getting delayed an unreasonable (>1y?) amount of time?
A: The risk of development of the tokenisation to become regulatorily compliant is mitigated as follows: HanseCoin will file alongside its efforts to create the PPTs, its application to attain an investment firm license in Estonia allowing it to act as fund manager. This puts it on the safe side if considerations of certain tokens as securities were to become effective. The board and supervisory board of HanseCoin assisted by counsel and auditors will take all necessary steps and employ their professional experience to meet the requirements and become licensed in the defined regulatory process. As indicated in the roadmap, CoinMetro as an exchange requires substantially more comprehensive licensing for a variety of their additional services to be rendered in the future and is seeking theirs with a view to having them in place by end of Q2 2019.
If the technical development of the tokenisation were to be delayed beyond the date of regulatory compliance, HanseCoin with the VPAT has the option to seek an extension to complete whatever technical matters would have to be resolved, albeit that the economic interest at hand should mitigate that. HanseCoin is keen to issue, list, and expand their tokenisation platform approach to a wide audience of potential participants and process a variety of underlying hard assets, as only then it is successful. The interest of HanseCoin's founders and team are aligned with the VPAT holders. We will push the development with determination and daily grind. As such we believe that a delay as you indicated beyond a month or even three months over the Vesting Period whilst technically possible is highly unlikely.

Q: What can HanseCoin offer me that I already do not have access to? I can already directly invest in property or buy equity in residental property via crowdfunding websites etc. What I cannot do as a U.K. citizen is easily invest in overseas property, does HanseCoin fix that problem? In addition will HanseCoin give people in emerging markets easy access to say, European and American property? What kind of restrictions might I face if , as a U.K. citizen, I wanted to buy an ABT for a U.S. property?
A: You can own a piece of real estate in any jurisdiction via our platform, ie, fractional ownership. As we onboard new projects, some will be European. The US comes with certain restrictions that may make onboarding US based projects an issue. At this time, the projects of interest are non-US. We will be sure we are compliant with any projects we approve.
Re crowd funding, on our home page at Hansecoin.com, scroll down and read:
Let’s talk about The Gap.

Q: Can I own Hansecoin if I am a US resident?
A: As referred to in the disclaimers of the info memo and the webpage, HanseCoin with its ongoing private sale and the upcoming public sale in principle is currently not offered to participants who are U.S. residents as regulation so implies and we are not offering securities at this time. Without providing legal advice, a private pre-sale may e.g. allow up to 35 non-accredited investors to participate under certain limitations and exemptions under rule 506 (b), however it may have little bearing on us as the private (pre-)sale of Hansecoin VPAT's would likely be considered a form of general solicitation in the U.S. Thus, in consideration of rule 506 (c) only accredited investors, i.e. those who can verify that they are, may have a path to participate in the private (pre-) sale. May we suggest to consider this with counsel and message us directly so that we can review the matter, in case you are an interested accredited investor. We obviously value your interest and shall be glad to continue the dialogue. It is not unlikely with upcoming regulation in Estonia and the EU as well as HanseCoin progressing to become a regulated investment firm in the near future that future issues including a potential mastercoin could be offered also in the U.S. We certainly would be glad if market rules were to allow truly global coverage.
NEW FAQS FOR RON TO POST ON WEBSITE:

Q: Did I understand correctly, that HanseCoin is a overarching platform for more asset backed token projects? That token PPT token itself is not limited to the current real estate (RE) you are developing? If so, what happens if let's say, the current RE is finished and you start another project, will there then the same process as now, but with a PPT2?
A: HanseCoin is an overarching platform and not limited to one project, albeit that the first project contributed at a significant discount to the platform to support its launch carries itself and the platform build-out. HanseCoin's goal is to efficiently onboard a variety of projects which fit the 'Gap' range for development capital, i.e. small/mid cap project financings for hard assets. We have three projects in the short term pipeline which shall be launched in stages over the next months. The structuring employed in the initial project can, as per current review be rolled out in more than a dozen, potentially more jurisdictions of the current EU-27. Variations of the structure used by HanseCoin render it sufficiently resilient to over time include more hard assets including factory machinery and equipment as well as segments such as rolling stock. However, we start with something small, solid and compact in real estate development where platform and participants in its onboarded project(s) can capitalise on sufficient potential to reap liquidity premiums and reduce transaction cost through tokenisation.

Q: Can I draw a similarity to Coin Metro’s (CM's) ICO express here: Both HanseCoin and ICO Express to onboard external projects? Now you guys lead the real estate (RE) development yourself, but maybe the next project is developed by an external team but uses your platform for tokenization?
A: I would say that we will work closely with CM's on their ICO Express, as there is no need to reinvent the wheel and we believe that they are in the process of setting up an excellent platform. Technically, I would consider us the Asset Financing Module associated with/connected to their platform. Given our understanding of RE in specific and asset financing in general the intention is to process a series of projects and develop the capacity of HanseCoin to assess, validate, wherever needed structure and adapt/improve underlying projects with strong project financing parties (project managers, engineers, architects, banks, brokers, supervisors, construction companies) etc. - we facilitate the RE development or third party projects employing HanseCoin as the project tokenisation platform.
In other asset finance segments, such as factory and machinery, the industries we can work with are widely varied, as Chris just stated, this can be biotech as well as manufacturing, the key is the underlying asset.
For retail solutions the logistics solutions connecting e-commerce and highstreet require substantial investments in hardware, data processing capacity and software. Whilst the line there blurs between pure hard assets and its steering/process technology, the physically distributed logistics aspect is intriguing and we believe we can in the future benefit from tokenisation.

Q: I'm interested in finding out more re contributing to the private sale (amount of funds being raised, minimum contribution size, etc).
A: Pursuant to ongoing discussions with a variety of interested parties including family offices across Germany, Austria and Scandinavia committing to certain amounts we have created a sliding incentive scale for those entering the Private Sale:
During the current phase up till the hard floor for the platform build-out we offer small, yet attractive discounts to early bird participants, whereas larger ticket sizes obtain higher discounts. Parties committing participations of EUR 50,000k receive a discount (as a token amount bonus) of 2.25%, EUR 100,000 equates 2.5% discount/bonus, EUR 200,000 results in 3% discount/bonus and tickets of EUR 500 k and above receive a 4% discount/ bonus.
For those followers here on Telegram the ticket sizes can be amended but discounts/bonus tokens of 1% kick in starting at EUR 10,000 (equivalent in ETH).
For the sake of good order, recently we have done one brief flash sale to reward our hardcore followers, tech contributors and early birds at a significant one time only 5% discount/bonus. We do not envisage it to be repeated.
As the token vesting period ends after latest 9 months and a tradable token is then issued even the lowest rung of discounts is slightly better than many peer products and approaches, certainly better than parking it in money market products. For small to medium size participants, generally, parking liquidity in attractive vehicles with underlying real estate and hard assets in Europe is not such a bad idea at this time. The tokens are available at short notice.
If this is of interest to you please advise which volumes in the above brackets you wish to pursue and we shall open the Private Sale to you.

Q: How does HanseCoin compare to other companies attempting to issue asset backed tokens? Aren’t such tokens securities?
A: Hansecoin has a unique approach in that it has achieved regulatory compliance even with token issuance. Have a look at the Whitepaper. Normally, tokens of this nature will be regulated as securities. So for HanseCoin to stay compliant, we have a regulatorily compliant token (VPAT) for the platform which is already asset backed. It is non-negotiable, non-transferrable, and non-tradeable thus is not a security token. HanseCoin will later issue tokenized securities known as PPTs upon being regulated as an investment firm in lock-step with what EU / Estonian regulators decide.
As noted, Hansecoin is live already. Its original token, the VPAT, is already asset backed and called an ABT. Due to substantial demand from private equity we are in a private sale at the moment. If and when suitable a public sale may be announced.
So, no more weeks of waiting as with so many others. If you are interested to enter into the private sale please register and let us know. [my note: Smartlands has launched their mastercoin which should be a security since it is tradeable but not issuing tokenized securities as of yet.]

Q: How can HanseCoin claim to have first mover advantage compared to, say, Smartlands, when HanseCoin hasn't even finished its capital raise or developed its platform? If my understanding is correct, Smartlands completed their token sale last year and have already developed their core platform
Also, I'm finding the whitepaper diifficult to digest. It’s very wordy. I'm sure the key points could be presented more succinctly.
A: For the sake of good order, Smartlands has placed its token but is not asset backed from the begininng. By the way, it has lost -24.8% from its peak 4 days ago, though through its excellent PR, I believe it is the only coin that has outperformed bitcoin this year, which attests to the power of the asset backed token.
That said, Smartlands does not have any live project. HanseCoin has not made such claims but is the first regulated asset backed token in that it has the underlying asset pledged to it in proportion to the funds raised, and one live project plus three which its shareholders have either secured or control over. The issuance of the HanseCoin PPT token is solely deferred due to and dependent on the current regulation. In order to become independent from that, HanseCoin will file to become a regulated investment adviser in December so that by February it can issue securities and thus tokenised securities no matter what ambiguity may exist then for other token approaches.
In the meantime, those who are holding HanseCoin VPAT tokens whose value is not pegged to any cryptocurrency but to hard assets sidestepped the recent huge drop seen in bitcoin and most all other cryptocurrencies. The average cryptocurrency has now lost over 90% of its value in 2018. Meanwhile, the value of the VPAT is pegged to the euro and the underlying asset.
Besides blockchain related software improvements, the current platform development is predominantly geared to the expansion into 17 EU jurisdictions and related systems compatibility, database design, and applicable interfaces, compliance process designs, linkage with exchanges, as well as research and development into future tokenisation components.
As to the whitepaper, based on requirements of the EFSA (the Estonian regulator), PWC Legal as our counsel, auditors, and tax advisers, we have to reflect the matter comprehensively. The summary pages tend to be important whilst the flow charts are there to assist with visuals.
Whilst you may consider it excessive, we have condensed both the tokenisation and the use case significantly. Some of our team have longstanding careers in investment banking, corporate audit, and structured finance. Any offering circular in asset backed bonds, a closed end fund prospectus or an euqity placement memorandum would run into hundreds of pages and a 8x multiple word count.
Our target was to simplify the sourcing, issuance and distribution of asset financing with benefits to participants and developers alike whilst substantially reducing transaction cost to enable and accelerate that. That is the key proposition of blockchain and only our platform is live and doing that. Having a listed token today is secondary.
Here are some bullet points which focus on the key points to our platform:
· First-mover Advantage - HanseCoin is the world's first regulated blockchain platform to tokenise hard assets;
· Technology - Solid Blockchain technology applied properly greatly lowers transaction costs across the board from project inception to completion thus participants reap high yields;
· Demand - Leading developers and sponsors across Europe wish to onboard their projects onto our platform;
· Regulatory Compliant - Regulatory passporting capacity into the majority of EU markets and capacity to go beyond;
· Client Access to Higher Yield - Development projects bring high yields to people who are not classic development investors at a time of historically low interest rates;
· Risk Mitigation - Excellent diversification opportunity to peg capital to the value of the underlying hard assets.
· Ongoing Transaction & Success Fee Generation - The platform generates ongoing transaction fees per project. The more projects and more participants, the higher the profits which are shared between Participants and the platform.
But the way, together with CoinMetro (www.coinmetro.com) and its CEO Kevin Murcko we will at Slush to present their exchange and our platform as the first solid Asset Backed Token for hard assets to listed on CoinMetro.

Q: How do projects such as https://www.meridio.co compete with HanseCoin?
A: Meridio.co offers fractional ownership which, whilst fine as a concept, does not lend itself to fit the tokenised securities approach EU regulators are starting to take (they have MIFID, AIFM, etc. to work with) and the specific segment of project/asset financing where development capital is actually required, the small and mid cap segment in Europe and beyond (we call it 'the gap' of EUR 1.5 to EUR 10 m of equity participations in projects) is not addressed. HanseCoin already owns shovel ready land and its platform is regulated.

Q: A few questions:
1a. Which tokens do private sale participants receive for their contribution? VPAT, PPT or both?
2a. Are VPAT tokens temporary in nature, having no further use once they have been swapped or burned following the completion of the platform development?
3a. What is the main potential benefit to a participant in acquiring VPAT tokens?
4a. Is PPT the participation token for the first project only or for all future projects supported by the platform? (Or something in between?)
5a. What is the HanseCoin master token?
A:
1a. The private sale participants receive VPATs.
2a. The VPAT is the asset backed token which starts the platform and provides exclusive access to (a) the PPTs prior to them becoming tradable as well as (b) the VBTs. All VPATs are burned, swapped, or extended at the end of the vesting period.
3a. The VPAT provides exclusive access to future tokens including the tradeable PPT, VBTs for bonuses, and potential further privileges which the platform may grant to its early sponsors and participants. The VPAT is also the only path to secure discounted PPT token access.
4a. As of today, the PPT covers the initial project use case. Each additional project will see an appropriate amount of PPTs issued to reflect the initial capital requirement of the underlying asset development project at its inception. During the platform development and regulation phase, additional VPATs will be issued in regard to further projects in the pipeline. The first PPT will be known as HanseCoin 8. Each additional project will countdown from 8 thus the second project will be known as HanseCoin 7, and so forth. Upon the first issuance and listing of a PPT, thus subject to further regulation of tokenised securities, it is envisaged to have VPATs only issued for each private sale phase.
5a. A master coin which represents not just one specific project but the value of HanseCoin as a whole company will be issued at some point when project tokens have gained critical mass in terms of projects, countries/markets covered and distribution. It seems likely that the countdown will fit well with this. The valuation will be dictated by the ongoing projects, projects to be on-boarded, and any white-labelling on the HanseCoin platform. We envisage that all original VPAT holders should have privileged access to an attractive bonus for the master coin which shall be accrued through VBTs during the PPT issuance period. These specific VBTs would vest until the issuance of the master coin. This is an exclusive benefit to the initial VPAT participants.

Q: So are VPAT and PPT *categories* of token rather that the actual tokens themselves? In other words, HanseCoin 8 is *a* PPT not *the* PPT? Also, if private sale participants receive VPATs, then why does hansecoin.coinmetro.com offer "HANS" tokens, which Chris tells me refers to "HanseCoin 8" tokens? Shouldn't coinmetro be offering VPAT tokens at this stage, not PPT tokens?
A: VPAT is a virtual token. PPT will be a compliant tokenized security we issue sometime next year, potentially ahead of the projected 9 month vesting period of the VPAT. The PPT will be compliant, in line with regulations as they are formed.
HANS is the ticker for the VPAT. Only the first phase VPAT currently exists that represents the first use case. HanseCoin 8 is the first use case. HanseCoin 7 will be the second use case, ticking down by one each time a new project is launched.
By the way, there is no such thing as a security token even though STO stands for security token offering. But then, many of the terms used in the cryptospace have been bastardized such as the term 'whitepaper'.

Q: I presume the VPAT for the second project will have a different ticker? What is the ticker for the first PPT (HanseCoin 8)?
A: A ticker will be assigned then by the listing exchange and the symbol is not decided, yet, although it seems reasonable to consider a variation of HANS (which is the ticker for the first VPAT) plus an indicator (technically, the ticker can remain as is whilst the sub-category is defined as an index).
submitted by HanseCoin to u/HanseCoin [link] [comments]

[financial] Balancing Optimism and Realism

To some extent, this is about all dimensions, but it applies particularly to financial so I added that category.
I've been very much of two minds about this latest rise in NYAN, since Tuesday when we reached an all-time high volume and market cap. Certainly, I love to see this type of interest and it's exciting to watch the market at times like this. But I also worry about the bubble possibility and whether or not new buyers will end up underwater for a long time.
Even before this latest rise I was debating a post to explicitly shout out a bubble warning. The main reasons I didn't were that (a) the rise seemed so crazy that the likelihood of a bubble seemed obvious to me and (b) at the same time, the overall level didn't seem completely insane and I want to be sure to not be giving such warnings so often I end up ignored.
And yet...we've now crossed a million dollar market cap. This was a "low-Earth orbit" goal when I started the revival in Jan 2015: while it may not be "moon" in that compared to the overall market it's still a small thing, it's still a very impressive and surprising climb from where we were. I had talked about a 10x return a year as being a best possible case, and while market cap has also grown from an increased supply during that time beyond just price appreciation, still, we did very loosely just accomplish a 1000x market cap over the course of three years. That's truly incredible.
Going forward from here, I see a similar type of split: on the one hand, it is entirely possible for us to go back to where we were before this latest spike, or even lower. Or Bitcoin could have a market panic. Or major regulatory problems. Or some critical bug. Or Lex Luthor gets a quantum computer and decides to attack NYAN. There are infinite ways this could all crash and burn.
But...after such success, how can I help but dream about what could happen if things go well for the next five to ten years as well?
Now, there's certainly a lot of work to be done. Just off the top of my head, major things that we would want to accomplish over that time as a minimum would include:
And there's probably plenty that I'm not thinking of at the moment. Certainly, none of it is particularly difficult or cutting edge, but I wanted to make the point that it's not like we can do nothing and expect a best-case outcome.
What is that best-case outcome though? Well, after having gone from a market cap in the thousands, to a market cap in the millions, the next steps that occur to me are the tens of millions, hundreds of millions, and billions of dollars of market cap.
On the face of it, a billion dollar market cap seems absolutely impossible for NYAN. Certainly, in all probability we will never reach it. In order for it to happen, at the very least, I would expect that crypto would have to explode far beyond what it already has; mass adoption of something would need to happen, in order to be attracting that type of capital into the market overall.
Also, it certainly would not be within three years if it happened: we should not be expecting 10x returns from here on in. For this year, if we merely maintain the current level through the end of the year, that would be unquestionably a success in my view.
But if the overall market were to be growing, and we were to be growing at a rapid (compared to traditional investments) but slower (compared to the last three years) pace, we might see a somewhat similar result to what we've been doing: generally hold or slightly slip in our ranking, while growing in value (with plenty of volatility, of course).
At some point, we would have to be able to rise through the ranks as well. I can't see the ~650th coin being a billion dollar market cap, for sure. In a very crazy future, I could perhaps see the cutoff being the top 100 though. The overall cryptocurrency market cap would of course be trillions at that point at least, perhaps tens or even hundreds of trillions.
And this implies that USD/etc is slipping in the meantime. It might seem like a small effect compared to crypto market movements, but still, over the course of a couple decades or so, we can expect it to halve in value. And $250 million - $500 million seems a lot more obtainable than $1 billion.
So...in a best case scenario, maybe in 10-20 years, with a stable, full-time development and support team, with a strong and at least medium sized community which retains its technical and friendly aspects but perhaps gains a bit of financial strength as well, it seems to me like $1 billion market cap is not entirely impossible.
Depending on your perspective, that statement may seem very cautious or very wildly optimistic. I think it is both.
I do not want people thinking this is any kind of "sure thing". I've deliberately emphasized satirical and self-critical elements in order to try to prevent people from gambling more than they can afford to lose on this. I try to avoid getting euphoric in talking about the future for the same reason. But I think it's important to think about what we are trying to work towards.
If NYAN is to succeed in the long-term as a strong store of value, then we should expect that it would continue to rise against USD, since that is designed to lose value, albeit slowly and in a controlled manner. But that is a big "If". If, though...well, that's certainly space program time: I believe that we should use success to do something other than just the "lambo" mentality. Whether it's adventure or philanthropy, or best, some of both, I would like that to be a difference between us and most of the rest.
People remember DOGE sponsoring the Jamaican bobsled team. That was a cool moment. I'd like to see us have similar in the future.
I'd like to see NYAN be part of building a better future. While I think we do that a little bit just from existing and learning and improving ourselves, I also think we can obviously do more with more financial resources. I don't think there's anything wrong with hoping for good returns. But we should always remember how uncertain the future is for everyone, and in particular for a tiny novelty coin without a developer.
We have come a long ways. If we continue to put in work and don't overextend ourselves, I think we can go further. But the difficulty is rising.
And always beware the bubble...
submitted by coinaday to nyancoins [link] [comments]

The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency: Part 3b - Pricing and liquidity

*Introductions: I'm joskye. A cryptocurrency investor and holder. *
...
 
Hi again. This is the third part in our ongoing series on how to trade better and determine intelligent investments in cryptocurrency for the future.
 
 
Part 3b continues where I left off with a discussion about price metrics specifically, what determines the price and the importance of liquidity:
...
 
The day traders:
 
As I mentioned in my previous article, as of writing almost every cryptocurrency is determined purely by speculative value.
 
 
For instance in cryptocurrency Bitcoin is still the biggest player in the game. It carries a per unit price of $900 per coin. There are currently 16,090,137 (16 million) coins in circulation giving it a total marketcap value of [$900 x 16090137 =] $14481123300 or 14.48 billion USD.
 
 
Shadowcash looks even more meagre compared to the total cryptocurrency marketcap with only 0.048% of the total cryptocurrency sphere.
To any Shadowcash holders despairing at this point, relax. There are over 707 cryptocurrencies trading as of writing and SDC holds the 27th ranking in terms of market cap. In such a competitive field, filled with scams that's pretty good. Moreso when you consider that SDC is a legitimate technology and is currently probably very undervalued.
...
 
Lets look at the rich list for bitcoin:
 
Why did I just talk about this?
 
In cryptocurrency I see this happening on the markets all the time. Indeed market manipulation effects every single cryptocurrency eventually.
...
 
Market manipulation!
 
Large holders of valuable, high marketcap coins will often make multiple small volume purchases of less valuable, low marketcap coins. Often this will follow announcements regarding developments in that low marketcap coin.
 
 
Low volume buying in a market with low daily trading volume can gradually drive up the price attracting an influx of buyers into that coin; often they will make larger volume purchases of it which helps drive up the price much further. This will trigger a further chain of buyers experiencing FOMO (fear of missing out, detailed in Part 2) who will drive up the price even further. The price will pump. Often will smaller cap cryptocurrencies this may result in a sudden 20, 40, 60 or even +100% increase in value often over a very short time space (1-2 days, 1-2 weeks maximum).
 
 
The only way to discern if the sudden rise in coin value is due to pre-rigged market manipulation is to look at:
 
You are looking for organic, gradual growth based on a solid value proposition. Sudden large spikes in value should make you pause and wonder if it's worth waiting for a gradual correction (organic drop) in price before entering your buy order.
 
Do not fall for a pump and dump. Stick to the lessons covered in previous parts of this guide (especially part 3a and 2) and you will be much less likely to lose money in the long run trading and investing in cryptocurrencies.
...
 
The pattern of change on daily trading volume, the order book and liquidity:
 
Lets look at SDC and Bitcoin again. This time we are going to compare the daily trading volume (last 24 hours) in USD.
 
 
I'd just like to use this opportunity to point out and reinforce the idea that day traders not holders dictate the daily price of an asset. I'd also like to point out daily global trading volume on Forex is $4800 billion which makes Bitcoin a very small fish in the broader arena of global finance and trade i.e. Bitcoin is still very vulnerable to all the price manipulation tactics and liquidity issues I am going to be describing in this article by bigger players with richer pockets.
 
 
The daily trading volume also gives you an idea of how much fiat currency you can invest into a given cryptocurrency before you suddenly shift the price.
 
 
A sudden rise in coin price heavily out of proportion to the rise in daily trading volume should be the first sign to alert you to a pump & dump scam.
 
Daily trading volume should show a steady increase over time with sustained buy support at new price levels; this is a good marker of organic, sustainable growth.
...
 
For more detail you can now look at the depth chart:
 
The depth chart is very useful to know how much fiat currency is required to cause the spot price of a given cryptocurrency to rise or fall by a given amount.
 
NB the price of most cryptocurrencies is expressed in Bitcoin because it has the largest market cap and daily trading volume of all cryptocurrencies by a very large margin and because with a few exceptions (Ethereum, Monero) most cryptocurrencies do not have routes to directly purchase via fiat currency without first purchasing Bitcoin.
 
Liquidity is super important. People often complain about a market lacking liquidity but that is often because they are trading in fiat volumes which far exceed the daily trading fiat volumes of the cryptocurrency they are referring to. If you are investing or trading in a cryptocurrency, always factor in the your personal liquidity and need for liquidity relative to that of the cryptocurrency you are investing in. In other words don't expect to make a profit next day selling 'cryptocurrency x' if the size your single buy order composes >90% of the buy orders on the market for 'cryptocurrency x' that day (indeed in such a scenario be very prepared to sell at a loss next day if you absolutely have to)!
 
 
There are certain patterns on a depth chart that make me believe a significant, sustained price rise is imminent: One example occurs when there is a very large volume of buy orders (>25% of total buy volume within 5% of current price) very close to the current (spot) price, and a very large number of sell orders close to but significantly above the spot price (approx 25% total sell volume within 10% of current price) and especially if the total buy order volume is a significantly higher percentage than it has previously been. This simply indicates high demand at current price which may soon outstrip supply. Again I stress that these patterns can be manipulated easily by wealthy traders.
 
...
 
The order book is another way of looking at the depth chart and allows you to see the specific transactions occurring that compose daily trading volume by the second!
 
I find it useful because it allows me to identify:
 
...
 
The price charts:
 
Discussions about price charts could be endless. I'm not going to go into too much detail, mostly because I'm an investor who believes the value proposition, good consistent development, decent marketing and communications will ultimately trump spot prices and adverse (or positive) short term price trends in the future.
...
 
The news cycle:
 
...
 
Other interesting points: The 'coin x' scenario and the ridiculousness of marketcap:
 
'Coin X' is an imaginary hypothetical coin. There are only 10 in circulation. It has no value proposition beyond it's speculative value i.e. it will never generate a revenue independent of it's speculative value.
 
 
I'd like to point out the similarities between ZCash and 'coin x' (especially during it's launch).
...
 
Lessons:
 
 
...
 
References:
1. Coinmarketcap rankings: https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ 2. Coinmarketcap daily trading volumes https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/volume/24-hou 3. Bitinfocharts - Top 100 Richest Bitcoin addresses: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html 4. Crypto ID - Shadowcash Rich list: https://chainz.cryptoid.info/sdc/#!rich 
 
...
 
Further articles in this series:
 
"The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency"
 
Part 0 -
Part 1 -
Part 2 -
Part 3a -
Part 3b -
Part 4 -
Part 5 -
Part 6 -
Part 7a -
 
"The intelligent investors guide to Particl -"
 
 
Full disclosure/Disclaimer: At time of original writing I had long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Shadowcash (SDC), Iconomi (ICN), Augur (REP) and Digix (DGD). All the opinions expressed are my own. I cannot guarantee gains; losses are sustainable; do your own financial research and make your decisions responsibly. All prices and values given are as of time of first writing (Midday 8th-Jan-2017).
 
Second disclaimer: Please do not buy Shadowcash (SDC), the project has been abandoned by it's developers who have moved on to the Particl Project (PART). The PARTICL crowd fund and SDC 1:1 token swap completed April 15th. You can still exchange SDC for PART but only if it was acquired prior to 15th April 2017 see: https://particl.news/a-community-driven-initiative-e26724100c3a for more information.
 
Addendum: Article updated 23-11-2017 to edit references to SDC (changed to Particl where relevant to reflect updated status) and clean up formatting.
submitted by joskye to Particl [link] [comments]

IV Rank vs. IV Percentile: Which is Better?  Measuring ... IV Rank is Garbage. [Options Trading / Tastytrade Options Strategies] Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) Or Implied Volatility ... Why High Implied Volatility Rank is Crucial to Options ... Thinkorswim PREMIUM Implied Volatility Percentile - YouTube

The lowest implied volatility value is 30, and the highest implied volatility value is 60. Compare the current implied volatility value to this range to try to see how the current implied volatility ranks related to its historical implied volatility range. If the current implied volatility value is 45, then this would equal an implied volatility rank of 50% since it is in the middle of this range Rank 2686. Website; Explorer; Explorer 2; Token; Charts; Market Pairs; Social; Tools; Historical Data; Ratings; On-Chain Analysis; News ; 1x Long Bitcoin Implied Volatility Token Social Media Feeds. No Active Feeds. About 1x Long Bitcoin Implied Volatility Token. BVOL tokens are ERC20 tokens that attempt to track the implied volatility of crypto markets. Each BVOL token gets its price action ... Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big ... About 1x Long Bitcoin Implied Volatility Token. 1x Long Bitcoin Implied Volatility Token price today is $1,316.12 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $2,459.00 USD. 1x Long Bitcoin Implied Volatility Token is up 11.52% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #4440, with a market cap of not available. This indicator displays Historical Volatility Rank (HVR). HV*/IV rank (0-100) is a description of where the current HV/IV* lies in comparison with yearly high and low in a specific underlying based on the past year of historical or implied volatility data. "Same formulation of IVR* but based on Historical Volatility instead. Serves the same purpose as IV rank."

[index] [28941] [13130] [24885] [29485] [13787] [24865] [6782] [38614] [1954] [46939]

IV Rank vs. IV Percentile: Which is Better? Measuring ...

Implied volatility is one of the most important pieces of determining the price of an option. Even more critically, we can use Implied Volatility (IV) levels... Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista always use the implied volatility rank as a metric when looking to enter an options trade. They dive into the data that shows t... IV Rank from Tastytrade is garbage and it will not help you make money when trading options. ----- ️ Receive $400+ of Free Training by visiting https://BestStockStrategy.com ️ Enroll as a ... Click here to Subscribe - https://www.youtube.com/OptionAlpha?sub_confirmation=1 Are you familiar with stock trading and the stock market but want to learn h... tastytrade looks at how a 1 Standard Deviation Strangle performs when IV Rank is high (50-74) and when IV Rank is very high (75-100). See latest tastytrade c...

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