In 2017, the myth of powering the world with 100% renewables has started to crack http://energyforhumanity.org/en/climate-energy/2017-myth-powering-world-100-renewables-started-crack/
Global demand for oil will continue to increase until 2040 says the IEA https://www.dw.com/en/international-energy-agency-sees-crunch-on-oil-consumption/a-46267704
EUROPE GETS 60% OF ITS “RENEWABLE ENERGY” BY BURNING IMPORTED TREES https://www.newscientist.com/article/2114993-europes-green-energy-policy-is-a-disaster-for-the-environment/
The EU is emitting way more greenhouse gases than it says https://qz.com/528491/the-eu-is-emitting-way-more-greenhouse-gases-than-it-says/
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010) http://energyforhumanity.org/en/climate-energy/2017-myth-powering-world-100-renewables-started-crack/
At this rate, it’s going to take nearly 400 years to transform the energy system https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/
University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016) https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
Solar and Wind produced less than one percent of total world energy in 2016 – IEA WEO 2017 https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2017.pdf
Turbines Kill So Many Birds They’re Effectively an Apex Predator https://e360.yale.edu/digest/wind-farms-can-act-like-apex-predators-in-ecosystems-study-finds
Fossil Fuel Share of Global Energy since 1990 – BP 2017 https://imgur.com/k7VecMq
Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/
Top scientists show why powering US using 100 percent renewable energy is a delusional fantasy http://energyskeptic.com/2017/big-fight-21-top-scientists-show-why-jacobson-and-delucchis-renewable-scheme-is-a-delusional-fantasy/
IEA Sees No Peak Oil Demand ‘Any Time Soon’, WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-sees-no-peak-oil-demand-any-time-soon-1488816002
There Will Be An Oil Shortage In The 2020s, Goldman Sachs Says (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/goldman-sachs-there-will-be-an-oil-shortage-in-the-2020s.html
Natural gas to become largest energy source by 2030 — IEA https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/11/natural-gas-to-become-largest-energy-source-by-2030-iea/
Renewable Energy Is Surging, but Not Fast Enough to Stop Warming https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/renewable-energy-is-surging-but-not-fast-enough-to-stop-warming/
Peak Conventional Oil In Ten Years https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/nov/19/peak-oil-economicgrowth
The Curse of Energy Efficiency https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/02/26/Energy-Efficiency-Curse/
Vaclav Smil: “The great hope for a quick and sweeping transition to renewable energy is wishful thinking” https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/the-curious-wavefunction/vaclav-smil-e2809cthe-great-hope-for-a-quick-and-sweeping-transition-to-renewable-energy-is-wishful-thinkinge2809d/
The Long Slow Rise of Solar and Wind – Vaclav Smil http://vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/scientificamerican0114-521.pdf
Wind turbines are not helping with energy — they are consuming much more coal in their creation https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/wind-turbines-are-neither-clean-nor-green-and-they-provide-zero-global-energy/#
Is Renewable Energy Renewable? https://ozziezehner.com/2013/04/03/is-renewable-energy-renewable/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6uVnyjTb58 –
Global Energy Demand & Carbon Emissions Increase In 2017 https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/22/global-energy-demand-carbon-emissions-increase-2017/
A new report finds that none of the negative emission technologies has the potential to deliver carbon removals at the gigaton (Gt) scale and at the rate of deployment envisaged by the IPCC, including reforestation, afforestation, carbon-friendly agriculture, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCs), enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, or direct air capture and carbon storage (DACCs). https://easac.eu/publications/details/easac-net/
Air conditioning will consume 100% of renewable energy by 2050 https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/13/cooling-people-in-a-hotter-world-could-consume-all-of-worlds-electricity-by-2050/
Large Hydropower Dams ‘Not Sustainable’ https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46098118
As Prairies Get Plowed for Biofuels, Greens Demand EPA Act https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-30/as-prairies-get-plowed-for-biofuels-green-groups-demand-epa-act
Humans are sleepwalking into a mass extinction of species not seen since the demise of the dinosaurs | The London Economic https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/humans-are-sleepwalking-into-a-mass-extinction-of-species-not-seen-since-the-demise-of-the-dinosaurs/23/03/
World on track to lose two-thirds of wild animals by 2020, Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/27/world-on-track-to-lose-two-thirds-of-wild-animals-by-2020-major-report-warns
The World Has Two Years To Secure A Deal To Halt Species Extinction https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/03/stop-biodiversity-loss-or-we-could-face-our-own-extinction-warns-un
Agriculture and overuse greater threats to wildlife than climate change, Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/10/agriculture-and-overuse-greater-threats-to-wildlife-than-climate-change-study
Mass migration of species to cooler climes has profound implications for society, pushing disease-carrying insects, crop pests and crucial pollinators into new areas, Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/ma30/climate-change-global-reshuffle-of-wildlife-will-have-huge-impacts-on-humanity
Researchers talk of ‘biological annihilation’ as study reveals billions of populations of animals have been lost in recent decades, Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/10/earths-sixth-mass-extinction-event-already-underway-scientists-warn
70% Of World’s Last Remaining Wilderness Is In Just Five Countries https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/wilderness-areas-world-wildlife-pristine-biodiversity-conservation-climate-change-capitalism-a8611521.html
The Extinction of Wilderness: The world’s untouched lands and oceans are rapidly disappearing, and scientists are calling for action https://newrepublic.com/article/151981/extinction-wilderness-untouched-lands-oceans-disappearing
The Extinction Crisis, Center For Biological Diversity https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/biodiversity/elements_of_biodiversity/extinction_crisis/
How humans are driving the sixth mass extinction, Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environment/radical-conservation/2015/oct/20/the-four-horsemen-of-the-sixth-mass-extinction
Earth’s Sixth Mass Extinction Has Begun, New Study Confirms https://www.iflscience.com/plants-and-animals/earth-s-sixth-mass-extinction-has-begun-new-study-confirms/
Only drastic action can save us from the sixth mass extinction https://www.wired.co.uk/article/sixth-mass-extinction-animals-wwf-report
Insect Collapse, Guardian https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/21/insects-giant-ecosystem-collapsing-human-activity-catastrophe?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Water shortages could affect 5bn people by 2050, UN report warns https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/ma19/water-shortages-could-affect-5bn-people-by-2050-un-report-warns
By 2020 about 30-40% of the world will have water scarcity, and according to the researchers, climate change can make this even worse. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/07/140729093112.htm
With only 7% of the world’s freshwater, China plans to produce 807 million gallons a day from desalination by 2020, roughly quadruple the country’s current capacity. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-09/china-embraces-desalination-to-ease-water-shortages
By 2025, an estimated 1.8 billion people will live in areas plagued by water scarcity, with two-thirds of the world’s population living in water-stressed regions. http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/freshwatefreshwater-crisis/
There will be about 1 billion more mouths to feed worldwide by 2025 and global agriculture alone will require another 1 trillion cubic meters of water per year (equal to the annual flow of 20 Niles or 100 Colorado Rivers). http://www.interactioncouncil.org/world-confronts-serious-water-crisis-former-heads-government-and-experts-warn-new-report
UN studies project that 30 nations will be water scarce in 2025, up from 20 in 1990. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/06/2011622193147231653.html
According to the U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment of Global Water Security, by 2030 humanity’s “annual global water requirements” will exceed “current sustainable water supplies” by 40%. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/05/the-coming-global-water-crisis/256896/
Water demand in India will reach 1.5 trillion cubic meters in 2030 while India’s current water supply is only 740 billion cubic meters. http://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/sustainability/latest_thinking/charting_our_water_future
If current usage trends don’t change, the world will have only 60 percent of the water it needs in 2030. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/03/20/world/asia/ap-world-water-crisis.html?_r=0
By 2035, the world’s energy consumption will increase by 35 percent, which in turn will increase water use by 15 percent according to the International Energy Agency. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/01/16/will-water-constrain-our-energy-future
By the year 2040 there will not be enough water in the world to quench the thirst of the world population and keep the current energy and power solutions going if we continue doing what we are doing today. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/07/140729093112.htm
The number of people living in river basins under severe water stress is projected to reach 3.9 billion by 2050, totaling over 40% of the world’s population. http://www.globalwaterforum.org/2012/05/21/water-outlook-to-2050-the-oecd-calls-for-early-and-strategic-action/
Compared to today, five times as much land is likely to be under “extreme drought” by 2050. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6068348.stm
Feeding 9 billion people by 2050, will require a 60 percent increase in agricultural production and a 15 percent increase in water withdrawals. http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/wateoverview
Water demand is projected to grow by 55 percent by 2050 (including a 400-percent rise in manufacturing water demand). http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/03/hot-crowded-and-running-out-of-fuel-earth-of-2050-a-scary-place/
By 2050, 1 in 5 developing countries will face water shortages (UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization). http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-Issues/2012/1202/Global-water-crisis-too-little-too-much-or-lack-of-a-plan
Between 2050 and 2100, there is an 85 percent chance of a drought in the Central Plains and Southwestern United States lasting 35 years or more. http://www.livescience.com/49794-megadrought-prediction-southwest-plains.html
If farmers in Kansas keep irrigating at present rates, 69 percent of the Ogallala Aquifer will be gone in 50 years. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/08/140819-groundwater-california-drought-aquifers-hidden-crisis/
Britain facing food crisis as world's soil 'vanishes in 60 years' - Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/agriculture/farming/6828878/Britain-facing-food-crisis-as-worlds-soil-vanishes-in-60-years.html
Only 60 Years of Farming Left If Soil Degradation Continues - Sciam https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/only-60-years-of-farming-left-if-soil-degradation-continues/
We need to protect the world's soil before it's too late - Popular Science https://www.popsci.com/topsoil-agriculture-food
Soil erosion - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations http://www.fao.org/docrep/t0389e/t0389e02.htm
We’re treating soil like dirt. It’s a fatal mistake, as our lives depend on it https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/ma25/treating-soil-like-dirt-fatal-mistake-human-life
Mass starvation is humanity’s fate if we keep flogging the land to death https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/11/mass-starvation-humanity-flogging-land-death-earth-food
75% of Earth's Land Areas Are Degraded (news.nationalgeographic.com) https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/03/ipbes-land-degradation-environmental-damage-report-spd/
Billions of people live on farmland that is deteriorating and producing less food http://www.thisisplace.org/i/?id=7251ef46-1f44-43d6-a7ed-bde0782e825f
The livestock sector could take between 37% and 49% of the GHG budget allowable under the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively, by 2030. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2018.1528965
Toxic Oilfield Wastewater Used to Grow California Organic Food https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/news/toxic-oilfield-wastewater-used-grow-california-food-including-organics
Tropical rainforests may be near a tipping point beyond our control https://www.salon.com/2018/04/09/tropical-rainforests-may-be-near-a-tipping-point-beyond-our-control_partne
SMARTPHONES = Earth Dead Faster Than Expected https://www.fastcodesign.com/90165365/smartphones-are-wrecking-the-planet-faster-than-anyone-expected
Sorry, Earth, The Ozone Layer Isn't Healing Itself After All https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2018/02/06/sorry-earth-the-ozone-layer-isnt-healing-itself-after-all/#7c85314f5418
The Earth-Space Battery And The Future of Life on Earth http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/31/9511.full.pdf
40% of Amazon Rainforest Already destroyed !!! https://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/amazon_destruction.html
Tropical Deforestation Is the Third-Biggest Carbon Emitter in the World https://psmag.com/environment/tropical-deforestation-leads-to-more-carbon-emissions
Inside the Amazon's deforestation crisis https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/amazon-rainforest-deforestation-crisis/article37722932/
Rivers in the Sky: How Deforestation Is Affecting Global Water Cycles https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-deforestation-affecting-global-water-cycles-climate-change
Palm Oil Was Supposed to Help Save the Planet. Instead It Unleashed a Catastrophe https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/20/magazine/palm-oil-borneo-climate-catastrophe.html
The spiralling environmental cost of our lithium battery addiction https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact
Air Pollution Is Killing Kids (huffingtonpost.com) https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-epa-pollution-health_us_5bf41da3e4b01909c809a8f5
Bitcoin alone could push global warming above 2°C in 15 years https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/2018/10/31.htm
Going Nowhere Fast on Climate, Year After Year https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/opinion/climate-change-global-warming-history.html
Major natural carbon sink may soon become carbon source https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181120073635.htm
Science education must reflect reality: We only have 12 years to stop climate change https://thehill.com/opinion/education/416082-science-education-must-reflect-reality-we-only-have-12-years-to-stop
Climate Change Causing More Severe Wildfires, Larger Insect Outbreaks in Temperate Forests https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181107172914.htm
Uncounted fracking emissions means 2°C by 2030 https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/04/11/climate-change-two-degree-warming-fracking-natural-gas-rush-ingraffea
Australian researchers says energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/ma10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study
Seafloor Is Dissolving Because of Climate Change https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/d3qaek/the-seafloor-is-dissolving-because-climate-change?fbclid=IwAR2KlkP4MeakBnBeZkMSO_Q-ZVBRp1ZPMWz2EIJCI6J8fKStRSyX_gIM0-w
Scientists ponder risk of abrupt climate shift https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/10/unknowingly-on-edge-of-a-climate-precipice/
Are we losing one of our biggest carbon dioxide sinks? https://phys.org/news/2018-11-biggest-carbon-dioxide.html
Ocean Storms Could Alter Kelp Forest Ecosystems https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181030091427.htm
A.I. will replace 50% of all jobs in 10 years https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/27/kai-fu-lee-robots-will-replace-half-of-all-jobs.html
A.I. will replace 50% of all jobs by 2025, a Swiss think-tank has warned https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1018786/Artificial-intelligence-AI-robots-replace-humans-machines-take-over-jobs
Robot automation will 'take 800 million jobs by 2030' https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42170100
Doctors and lawyers will lose jobs to A.I. too https://www.post-gazette.com/business/tech-news/2017/10/23/WorkZone-Yes-doctors-lawyers-automation-Vivek-Wadhwa-The-Driver-in-the-Driverless-Castories/201710220061
Males of All Species are Becoming More Female https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/01/01/males-of-all-species-are-becoming-more-female.aspx
Pollution Causing Feminization of Males Across Multiple Species, The Independent http://www.banderasnews.com/0812/eden-feminization.htm
Environmental impact of estrogens on human, animal and plant life, Science Direct https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412016304494
Warming warning over turtle feminization, PhysOrg https://phys.org/news/2018-12-turtle-feminization.html
Environmental Warming and Feminization of Sea Turtle Populations, Cell.com https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(17)31539-7
Demasculinization and feminization of male gonads by atrazine: Consistent effects across vertebrate classes, NIH https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4303243/
Are Endocrine Disruptors Blurring Issues of Gender? NIC https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1281309/
Background fish feminization effects in European remote sites, Nature https://www.nature.com/articles/srep11292
Endocrine Disruption Found in Fish Exposed to Municipal Wastewater, USGS https://toxics.usgs.gov/highlights/wastewater_fish.html
Evolution or Extinction of Men, Women's Health www.hormonesmatter.com/endocrine-disruptors-mens-health/
Pharmaceuticals, Personal Care Products, and Endocrine Disruptors in Water https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b1e1/5a9dc18bec0de564d9b23fb7e8014b21422e.pdf
The impact of exposure to air pollution on cognitive performance, PNAS https://www.pnas.org/content/115/37/9193
Seniors and men are especially vulnerable to cognitive decline due to dirty air, Motherboard https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/xwkj7q/air-pollution-can-make-us-dumber-study-finds
Is air pollution making us stupider? http://www.theweek.co.uk/96086/is-air-pollution-making-us-stupider
'Suppressed' EU report could have banned 31 pesticides worth billions, the report said pesticides are making us stupid, depressed and infertile, Guardian https://munchies.vice.com/en_us/article/8qk3wb/a-new-european-report-claims-pesticides-make-us-stupid-depressed-and-infertile
Western diet cause reduced cognition, declining cognition and dementia, NIH https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5437154/
Too Much Screen Time Damages the Brain https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/mental-wealth/201402/gray-matters-too-much-screen-time-damages-the-brain
What Screen Time Can Really Do to Kids' Brains https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/behind-online-behavio201604/what-screen-time-can-really-do-kids-brains
Your smartphone📱is making you👈 stupid, antisocial 🙅 and unhealthy 😷. So why can't you put it down❔⁉️, The Globe & Mail https://www.theglobeandmail.com/technology/your-smartphone-is-making-you-stupid/article37511900/
Myopia Epidemic From Too Much Screen Time, Not Enough Sunlight https://keck.usc.edu/too-much-screen-time-is-raising-rate-of-childhood-myopia/
Non-stick Frying Pans Making Penises Smaller https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6462775/Mens-penises-half-inch-smaller-chemicals-non-stick-frying-pans.html
Western Male Sperm Counts Down 60% in 40 years https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/sperm-count-west-men-health-drop-60-per-cent-years-modern-life-a7859491.html
Generational decline in testosterone levels observed, (2007) Helio https://www.healio.com/endocrinology/hormone-therapy/news/print/endocrine-today/%7Bac23497d-f1ed-4278-bbd2-92bb1e552e3a%7D/generational-decline-in-testosterone-levels-observed
You're Not The Man Your Father Was, Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilhowe/2017/10/02/youre-not-the-man-your-father-was/#22a2609d8b7f
Lower testosterone levels in men are related to depression, lethargy, weight gain and lower cognitive ability.
Millennial men are significantly weaker than their fathers, The Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/15/millennial-men-are-significantly-weaker-than-their-fathers/
Ship of Fools, Tucker Carlson https://books.google.ca/books?id=Q_10DwAAQBAJ&pg=PA204&lpg=PA204&dq=Lower+testosterone+levels+in+men+are+related+to+depression,+lethargy,+weight+gain+and+lower+cognitive+ability.&source=bl&ots=gRWKRyp2MW&sig=y8tpuvyqW9v9AuN5CdXqz6x5PRI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwianojPucXfAhWCiYMKHcjEBIkQ6AEwEXoECAwQAQ
Academic And Scientific Fraud
1,500 scientists lift the lid on reproducibility https://www.nature.com/news/1-500-scientists-lift-the-lid-on-reproducibility-1.19970
Is the Peer Review Process a Scam? - enago academy https://www.enago.com/academy/is-peer-review-process-a-scam/
Let's end reviewer fraud - Publons https://publons.com/blog/lets-end-reviewer-fraud/
107 cancer papers retracted due to peer review fraud | Ars Technica https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/04/107-cancer-papers-retracted-due-to-peer-review-fraud/
Peer review: a flawed process at the heart of science - Google Scholar http://scholar.google.ca/scholar_url?url=http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/014107680609900414&hl=en&sa=X&scisig=AAGBfm0D9oaDV4YG6rsHdvwE8ygJ8b4dgA&nossl=1&oi=scholarr
Why scientists need to do more about research fraud - Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/science/occams-corne2018/jan/04/science-fraud-research-misconduct
Canadian researchers who commit scientific fraud are protected by privacy laws - The Toronto Star https://www.theguardian.com/science/occams-corne2018/jan/04/science-fraud-research-misconduct
China cracks down after investigation finds massive peer-review fraud - science mag http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/china-cracks-down-after-investigation-finds-massive-peer-review-fraud
The Bottom of the Barrel of Science Fraud - Neuroskeptic http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/neuroskeptic/2017/11/30/worst-science-fraud/
Peer-Review Fraud — Hacking the Scientific Publication Process | NEJM https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1512330
Scientific Fraud - EuroScientist journal https://www.euroscientist.com/theme/scientific-fraud/
5 Common Types of Pharmaceutical Frauds You Should Know About! https://community.intelex.com/explore/posts/5-common-types-pharmaceutical-frauds-you-should-know-about
Tribalization Tribalization. Why War is Coming https://www.bozar.be/en/activities/146841-tribalization-why-war-is-coming
How America's identity politics went from inclusion to division https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/ma01/how-americas-identity-politics-went-from-inclusion-to-division
http://www.danielwilczynski.com/2017/11/29/bitcoin-price-index/ submitted by
Using BETI To Profit From The Coming Bubble
Nov 30, 2017 | 6 Min Read | 0 Comments TLDR: Sell above exponential trend line. Buy below trend line.
The time to sell off is after Bitcoins rise above $18000. Following crash buy in slowly below $10000.
NOTE! This is just a strategy that gives an educated guess. The strategy could be wrong. Don’t hold me responsible for the results of your trading. Bitcoin price can be hard to predict.
Using BETI To Profit From The Coming Bitcoin Bubble.
The Bitcoin bubble and crash cycle is repeating. As price shoots up meetup attendance and exchange user numbers have also exploded. Many newcomers are looking to invest in Bitcoin or have recently invested.
As the raising price brings more media attention to Bitcoin, causing further price rises, a mania builds that will send Bitcoin to spectacular heights. It will then crash and enter a bear market reaching possibly as low as $1000.
This has been the pattern before and its likely to repeat again. What is hard to predict is the exact highs, lows and when the bubble will occur.
This post explains my simple framework for estimating the price targets to sell, buy and when.
The essence of it is when the price is significantly above the exponential trend line it’s time to sell off. If it’s on the trend line or below it’s time to accumulate.
Log Chart of Price
The first graph is of the log(price) of Bitcoin. X axis is days since 31/7//2010.
Light Blue is the line of best fit. Red is a more conservative line with lower slope assuming exponential rate will decrease as Bitcoin market cap gets larger.
This second graph illustrates BETI (Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index). It shows how far we are from trend line. Y = ln(days-price / expected-days-price). X axis is days since 31/7/2010.
0 means we are on trend line.
The first observation we can make is that when we leave a bear market and cross the trend line, we usually get explosive growth.
We just recently (Nov 2017) crossed the trend line and all the indicators (google trends, user numbers etc) are rapidly growing. This suggest that we might have a cyclic top in the next 3 months.
The dizzying high prices will not last long. BETI might reach 1.5 for a few days. It will be hard to sell at the exact top however. BETI might stay over 1 for around 2 weeks.
Price Top Predictions
Let’s do some predictions of what could happen in the case of a cyclic bubble with the top occurring in 40 days.
A BETI of 1.5 (all time high BETI is 1.8) in 40 days would give:
a top of $32 200 based on line of best fit.
a top of $22 900 based on conservative line.
Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s look at BETI of 1 in 40 days. This gives us a price of:
$19 500 based on line of best fit.
$13 800 for conservative slope line.
We might want to start selling of slowly at a BETI of 0.8. This would mean respectively prices of:
When To Sell
We do not want to sell to early and be overtaken by the long term trend line.
Selling at $14 000 means we have 244 days from now till the best fit trend line reaches $14 000. We would want to buy back significantly before that time as we want to buy below trend line.
Selling at $18 000. Means we have 321 days from now till the line of best fit reaches the same price level.
As such, a good approach might be to not sell before $14000. Sell small amounts below $18 000.
Moderate amounts below. $27 000.
Large sell off above $27 000.
This means anybody with current Bitcoin holdings will make significant profit and has a very good chance of selling at a very good price. They should also have plenty of opportunities to buy back at lower price over then next year.
Cyclic Lows After Crash
How low could Bitcoin go in the bear market following the bubble pop?
If in 300 days we are in middle of bear market with BETI of -1.
That gives us cyclic price low of:
$6 200 for line of best fit.
$3 800 for conservative line.
If on the other hand we have a quick and gentle downturn such as the one in mid 2013 and only reach a BETI of -0.27 in 200 days, this would give us a price of:
$9 200 for line of best fit.
$6 000 for conservative line.
If we have a long downturn such as the one after the late 2013 bubble and reach a have low of -1.2 in 800 days. We would have a price of:
$25 800 for line of best fit.
$12 000 for conservative line.
This means we can be pretty confident that the crash will send Bitcoin at least below $10 000 dollars. After the pop I would suggest to start buying in slowly, each week we are below $10 000.
Its possible that Bitcoin will go even lower then that though, albeit briefly. A BETI of -2 in 300 days would give us
$2 300 for line of best fit. $1 400 for conservative line. Credits:
The concept of BETI was taken from core dev Dr. Johnson Lau in this thread
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