Bitcoin Price Breaks $6,000 at New All-Time High

XOM dropped from the DOw

For Trading August 25th
XOM, PFE, & RTX DROPPED FROM DJIA
More New Highs for NAZ & S&P-500
TSLA TOPS $2,100!!
Today’s market was higher from the start and leveled off around +240 -250 until the last 45 minutes when it powered higher into the close finishing +378.13 (1.35%), NASDAQ +67.92 (.60%), S&P 500 34.12 (1%), The Russell +15.90 (1.03%), and the big winner the DJ Transports +208.17 (1.9%). Internals were positive at 2.5:1 NYSE and 1.4:1 on the NAZ with NYSE volume 5:1 UP ! The DJIA was 5:1 higher and this will be the last time that AAPL will affect the average at the rates of the past since it is price-weighted and AAPL will no be a $100 stock, not $500. The only big loser today was UNH falling $36 DP’s and the gainers BA +74, AAPL +41, and GS +33 DP’s.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video over the weekend on a day-trade, (actually 2) that I made in AAPL on Friday. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to under what conditions these kind of trades in expiring options make sense. The link is https://youtu.be/qIV0G-hP3aM Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/eMCD4wjOVh4
SECTORS: While it isn’t necessarily my focus, it’s difficult to not key in on TESLA breaking $2,100 today, trading $2129 and then selling off to $1927 before turning back up to close $2014 -35.78 (1.75%). A week ago, someone in the Discord room asked what I thought, and I gave them an opinion that once we closed over $1,643 that we were headed directly to $2,000-2,100 on a straight shot. I really had a high degree of certainty but thought it would take more than 7 trading days to get to that range! The “possible” vaccine news this morning lit a fire under the airlines; AAL +1.28 (10.5%), DAL +2.53 (9.28%), LUV +2.22 (6.4%), and UAL +3.28 (9.9%). Next were the cruise lines with CCL +1.49 (10%), RCL +2.90 (4.7%), and NCHL +1.18 (7.6%). Personally, I don’t see these names holding up with DAL announcing that unless they get further financial assistance that they will have to fire an additional 1941 pilots. These guys just want us to foot the bill for their disgraceful actions when they could have been preparing for a downturn rather than just lined their own pockets and bought back stock. PaloAlto Networks beat both top and bottom lines but gave soft guidance on next quarters revenues and after closing $267.07 -2.26 it fell further to $254.68 -12.77 (4.7%). The big news on the DJIA is that Dow Jones is making 3 major changes. I could be wrong, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen more than one at a time, but here are the names: Salesforce (CRM) replaces XOM, Amgen (AMGN) replaces Pfizer (PFE), and Honeywell (HON) replaces Raytheon (RTX) which also includes UTX.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.67, BGS +.44, FLO +.23, CPB +.15, CAG +.44, MDLZ +.51, KHC +.67, CALM -.63, JJSF +3.45, SAFM +.01, HRL -.05, SJM +1.15, PPC +.38, KR +.15, and PBJ $34.31 +.15 (.44%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -.51, ABBV -.26, REGN -10.72, ISRG +2.05, GILD -.48, MYL +.34, TEVA -.14, VRTX -3.78, BHC +.61, INCY -.07, ICPT -.71, LABU -3.91, AND IBB $131.60 -1.00 (.75%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.10, CGC +.33, CRON +.18, GWPH -3.04, NBEV -.10, CURLF +.47, KERN unch., and MJ $12.40 unch.
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +5.43, GD +3.29, TXT +1.69, NOC +6.14, BWXT +1.51, TDY +6.52, RTX -.22, and ITA $169.39 +5.27 (3.21%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.36, JWN +1.15, KSS +1.54, DDS +2.13, WMT -.31, TGT -.56, TJX +1.32, RL +3.37, UAA +.51, LULU +7.56, TPR +.81, CPRI +1.36, and XRT $52.88 +.92 (1.77%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +10.13, AMZN +22.78, AAPL +8.62, FB +4.69, NFLX -3.51, NVDA +1.91, TSLA -49.96, BABA +11.20, BIDU +.74, CMG -9.84, BA +11.00, CAT +3.45, DIS +3.26, and XLK $118.96 +1.02 (.86%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.22, JPM +2.93, BAC +.76, MS +1.31, C +1.84, PNC +3.51, AIG +1.25, TRV +3.07, AXP +3.83, V +2.47, and XLF $24.89 +.58 (2.39%).
OIL, $42.62 +.28. Oil was higher in today’s trading before we rose further in the afternoon closing up at the top end of the day’s range. The stocks were HIGHER across the board with XLE $37.02 +.99 (2.75%).
GOLD $1,939.20 -7.80, rose early in the session trading up thru the double tops at $1,963.10 to $1,970 before selling off and finishing near the lows. I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $1.66.
BITCOIN: closed $11,770 +75. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $13.72 + .14 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

What Is a Bull Market?

Introduction


Market trends are among the most fundamental aspects of financial markets. We can define a market trend as the overall direction that an asset or a market is going. As such, market trends are closely watched by both technical analysts and fundamental analysts.
Bull markets tend to be relatively straightforward to trade, as they can allow for some of the easiest trading and investment strategies. Even inexperienced traders may do well in really favorable bull market conditions. With that said, it’s also crucial to understand how markets move in cycles.
So, what should you know about bull markets? How can traders take advantage of bull markets? We’ll explain it all in this article.

What is a bull market?


A bull market (or bull run) is a state of a financial market where prices are rising. The term bull market is often used in the context of the stock market. However, it can be used in any financial market — including bonds, commodities, real estate, and cryptocurrencies. Besides, a bull market may also refer to a specific asset such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, or CTT. It could even refer to a sector, such as utility tokens, privacy coins, or biotech stocks.
You may have heard traders from Wall Street use the terms “bullish” and “bearish.” When a trader says they are bullish on a market, it means that they expect prices to rise. When they are bearish, they expect prices to decline.
Being bullish can often mean that they are also long that market, though that may not necessarily be the case. Being bullish may not necessarily mean that a long trade opportunity is present right now, just that prices are rising or are expected to rise.
It’s also worth noting that a bull market doesn’t mean that prices don’t fall or fluctuate. This is why it’s more sensible to consider bull markets on larger time frames. In this sense, bull markets will contain periods of decline or consolidation without breaking the major market trend.
So, in this sense, the definition of a bull market depends on what time frame we’re talking about. Generally, when we’re using the term bull market, we are talking about a time frame of months or years. As with other market analysis techniques, higher time frame trends will have more validity than lower time frame trends.
As such, there may be prolonged periods of decline in a high timeframe bull market. These counter-trend price movements have a notoriety for being especially volatile — though this can vary greatly.

Bull market examples


Some of the most well-known examples of bull markets come from the stock market. These are the times when stock prices and market indexes (such as the Nasdaq 100) are continually rising.
As far as the global economy is concerned, it fluctuates between bull and bear markets. These economic cycles can last years, even decades. Some say that the bull market starting from the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis and lasting until the coronavirus pandemic was “the longest bull market in history.” This may or may not be true — as we’ve said, high time frame bull markets can be a matter of perspective.
Even so, let’s take a look at the long-term performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We can see that it basically has been in a century-long bull market. Certainly, there are periods of decline that can last for years, such as 1929 or 2008, but the overall trend is still pointing upwards.
Some argue that we could see a similar trend with Bitcoin. But we can’t really tell if and when Bitcoin will face a multi-year bear market. It’s also worth noting that most other cryptocurrencies (i.e., altcoins) will probably never experience similar price appreciation, so be extremely aware of what you invest in.

Bull market vs. bear market — what’s the difference?


These are opposite concepts, so the difference isn’t particularly difficult to guess. Prices are continuously going up in a bull market, while prices are continually going down in a bear market.
This also results in differences in how it may be best to trade them. In a bull market, traders and investors will generally want to be long. While in a bear market, they either want to be short or stay in cash.
In some cases, staying in cash (or stablecoins) may also mean shorting the market, since we’re expecting prices to decline. The main difference is that staying in cash is more about preserving capital while shorting is about profiting off the decline in asset prices. But if you sell an asset expecting to buy it back lower, you’re essentially in a short position — even if you are not directly profiting from the drop.
One additional thing to consider is fees. Staying in stablecoins will likely not incur any fees, as there typically isn’t a cost to custody. However, many short positions will require a funding fee or interest rate to keep the position open. This is why quarterly futures may be ideal for long-term short positions, as there is no funding fee associated with them.

How traders can take advantage of bull markets


The main idea behind trading bull markets is relatively simple. Prices are going up, so going long and buying dips is generally a reasonable strategy. This is why the buy and hold strategy and dollar-cost averaging are generally well-suited for long-term bull markets.
There’s a saying that goes like this: “The trend is your friend, until it’s not.” This just means that it makes sense to trade with the direction of the market trend. At the same time, no trend will last forever, and the same strategy may not perform well in other parts of a market cycle. The only certainty is that the markets can and will change. As we’ve seen with the COVID-19 outbreak, multi-year bull markets can be wiped out in a matter of weeks.
Naturally, most investors will be bullish in a bull market. This makes sense since prices are going up, so the overall sentiment should also be bullish. However, even during a bull market, some investors will be bearish. If their trading strategy accommodates for it, they may even be successful with short-term bearish trades, such as shorting.
As such, some traders will try to short the recent highs in a bull market. However, these are advanced strategies and are generally more suitable for professional traders. As a less experienced trader, it’s usually more sensible to trade according to the trend. Many investors get trapped trying to short bull markets. After all, stepping in front of a raging bull or a locomotive can be a dangerous undertaking.

Closing thoughts


We’ve discussed what a bull market is, and how traders may approach trading in bull market conditions. Typically, the most straightforward trading strategy in any market trend is to follow the direction of the overall trend.
As such, bull markets may present good trading opportunities, even for beginners or first-time investors. However, it’s always essential to manage risk properly and keep learning to avoid mistakes as much as possible.
Still having more questions about market trends, bull markets, or trading? Check out our Q&A platform, Ask service support, where the Citex community will answer your questions.
submitted by CITEXexchange to u/CITEXexchange [link] [comments]

How I am trading the Dow Jones

How I am trading the Dow Jones

My current open trade positions including 2x Dow Long Trades
I currently have 2 long positions open on the Dow Jones index and have been trading the recent bull run for almost 2 weeks now. The long term trend for this index is definitely bullish and any pullbacks in price are swiftly being met by more new buyers.
Dow 4hr chart
There are a few reasons for this. Firstly, there is no reason for US stocks to sell off in a dramatic fashion. There have (and always will be) lots of rumours of a recession with US debt levels rising and stocks being “overpriced” but that alone is not a reason to expect a recession right now.
Stocks have been called overpriced since the dawn of time because naturally they increase in price as time goes on. Much like the cost of a loaf of bread, inflation causes the prices of stocks to rise and Index’s will replace stocks that lose a lot of market cap with new up and coming stocks.
The second reason people keep calling for a recession immeidately is because of the increased levels of debt and borrowing in the USA.
The levels of US debt (measured as a % of GDP) are at their highest since World War 2 but that is not a major problem. The US Dollar is still used as a global reserve currency. It is why you will see many 3rd world countries preferring to accept it over their own currency and it is used as the base for Crude Oil and Gold valuations so the demand for US dollars will almost always be apparent.
US Debt (GDP %)
Many people say Gold or Bitcoin is the next major backup for currency when the recession hits but the simple fact is that you can’t pay for anything with gold. No business is going to accept gold in exchange for food & water, rent, mortgage payments or utilities bills. And bitcoin is about as stable as 2 legged donkey.
My trade entries:
My first long position entry developed from a quick day trade I planned and entered last week. I entered a very tight stop loss, short duration trade with a reasonable reward:risk of just under 3R.
Dow 15 min chart
I spotted a good daily buying trend appearing. Price had rejected a major support zone at $28,150 and from there it one ton to make nice higher highs and higher lows through the follow 4 days of trading. I entered long on the bounce of the bullish trendline and 50 EMA.
I closed a good percentage of my position at my first profit target which is shown on the chart above. However there was strong bullish momentum and I am still holding a portion of that initial long trade position open.
Dow 4hr chart
My second long trade position was entered on Monday morning after price had made a clear higher higher low and bounced off of the intraday support/resistance zone at $28,900. There was a strong 4hr bullish wick rejection candle closure and price closed above the support zone and 50 EMA.
Both trade entries are just very simple trend continuation entries with good reward:risk ratios.
Fundamentals & data:
Later today we have the U.S Crude Oil inventories data being released. This shouldn’t move the Dow Jones Index unless a shock figure is announced. Theoretically if inventory levels are massively increased then the price of Crude will fall dramatically and this will pull stocks down. The opposite can be said if Crude Oil price rises sharply.
This evening (7pm GMT) there is the US monthly budget statement for JAN 2020 but this shouldn’t move markets in a major way. However, you may see some short term volatility moves.
The main mover of markets this week will be the USD consumer price index data that is being released tomorrow afternoon. Inflation can be a double edged sword because it can stimulate job growth and as we have seen recently, the US job market is still growing rapidly. However, inflation can also effect corporations and their profit levels because it costs more to purchase goods/materials used for production.
We also have the ongoing global issue of the Corona Virus. it initiated the last big sell-off on global indices at the end of January and the related headlines will continue to influence the markets.
Long term price predictions:
Dow daily chart
If price continues to climb today then I would like to think there is enough momentum to break through the $29,500 resistance zone. If this happens then I see no reason why new all time highs won’t be achieved and a significant daily/4hr higher will made.
Dow 4hr chart
Long term profit targets are set at $29,800 which is a higher high for price. From there, if that level breaks then the key psychological level of $30,000 is next in line. I know there are a lot of professional and institutional traders wanting to see “Dow to $30k” and I am certain Mr Trump wants to see stocks climb right up until he is re-elected.
The alternative scenario is that price finds more resistance at $29,500 and begins to drop off. This is not a major issue and I will likely look to take some more profits if rejections of that price zone begin to appear.
*Taken from my blog site https://diaryofafinancekid.com/blog/
submitted by TheModernSpeculator to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Can Bitcoin separate from the independent market

Can Bitcoin separate from the independent market
Recently, the price of Bitcoin plunged to $ 3,600 on BitMEX and $ 3,800 on Bitfinex, setting the worst one-day drop in seven years. The sell-off coincided with a sharp correction in the US stock market.
Bitcoin, at least in theory, should be a safe-haven asset immune to the turbulence of traditional financial markets. However, in the past two weeks, as investors frantically sold high-risk assets, Bitcoin has begun to fall in sync with the stock market.
Do US stocks dive leading crypto market down?
Over the past week, the bitcoin price has responded to several key events, including President Trump's announcement of a 30-day travel ban between the United States and Europe, and the Federal Reserve's announcement to reduce the federal benchmark interest rate to 0.00% -0.25% Levels and more.
Compared with the trend of S & P 500, Bitcoin is almost the same as Bitcoin.
https://preview.redd.it/2asc4s2plfn41.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=495f610ada720436a3abfd8e97d66ac062def543
OKEx's advanced analysis is that William told Golden Finance, "Just as bitcoin price has no correlation with gold, there is no obvious correlation between bitcoin and U.S. stocks. The reason why U.S. stocks and bitcoin are falling is that the market is too lacking Liquidity, all funds are looking for safe, liquid assets. "
He explained by way of example that, in normal time, the water in the well is difficult to connect with the water in the lake; but the sky fell and the water levels of the lake and the well fell sharply. Even so, there was not much connection between the two sides. Just because of the influence of the big climate.
US stocks are about to open. How is Bitcoin trending?
In the early morning of March 18, local time, all three major US stock index futures fell, triggering trading restrictions.
The S & P 500 index futures contract for June 2020 fell to 2393.50 points, down 3.70%, hitting trading restrictions. The NASDAQ (7334.78, 430.19, 6.23%) index futures contract for June 2020 fell to 7064.25 points, hitting trading restrictions. The Dow Jones (21237.3809, 1048.86, 5.20%) index for the June 2020 contract was reported at 2039 points, which also hit trading restrictions.
Only 2 hours from the opening of the US stock market, will the US stocks reappear?
In this regard, industry analysts believe that the current US government is preparing to introduce the US $ 700 billion to the US $ 1 trillion stimulus plan and issue it directly to the public. All the US stocks rose due to this positive impact yesterday. But whether the liquidity crisis can be resolved is still a question mark. In addition, there are already confirmed cases in all states in the United States, the number of confirmed diagnoses in Europe is also rising sharply, a large number of factory shutdowns, which has a great impact on the stock market, so the probability of US stocks will fall in the next few months. Investors are not advised to take a dip at this time. It is now a crisis period and a dip is now a high-risk event. Regarding Bitcoin, it is recommended that you do not buy it, for the time being, at least it is not too late to buy it after the liquidity crisis has passed.
In terms of technical indicators, BTC remained within the rising triangle range formed after the recent big drop. The rebound started yesterday evening with the rise of U.S. stocks, but the strength was limited, and it was difficult to form a more powerful rebound in the short term. After wearing the Bollinger Middle Rail for 4 hours, the MACD bullish measuring column started to weaken above the 0 axes. The fast and slow lines have flattened, and the short-term upward momentum is insufficient. In the near future, it is still shock-organized. Parallel head up, volume matching, and breaking through the 4-hour potential double bottom neckline to suppress the high point of $ 5,950. Later, it is expected to test the previous low of 6400-6500. At present, the support below is the uptrend line. Today's limit is 4850. US dollar, the next 4-hour level is 4880 US dollars, short-term support to increase about 30 US dollars every 4 hours, the short-term operation can pay attention to these positions, the current overall maintenance of the triangle interval, waiting for direction choice.
https://preview.redd.it/gi1j9jewlfn41.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcdd2da52cd6a7de41d561c21760d8ff7eb6fc32
submitted by FinnHe to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Christmas Update

05-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Bull Market…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
20-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50681435#msg50681435
12-MAY-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51017295#msg51017295
17-JUN-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51505513#msg51505513
28-JUL-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51975328#msg51975328
26-OCT-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Trick or Treat…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531
24-NOV-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Thanksgiving Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53171045#msg53171045
24-DEC-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Christmas Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53430396#msg53430396
Summary: Bitcoin remains in a bull market with an outlook to exceed the 2017 high. However, a price move below $5000 suggests Bitcoin is in a bear market, with price headed to break below the 2018 lows. The majority of Altcoins favour an extended bear market unless an intervention can be coordinated. The outlook for the stockmarket, in particular the USA, is extremely bullish.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, two scenarios are under consideration at this inflection point: a continuing Bull Scenario or a Bear Scenario.
In either scenario, the Elliott Wave model proposes a five wave structure, consisting of: three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:
Wave-1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by; Wave-2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by; Wave-3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by; Wave-4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by; Wave-5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-? 
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/FOZu1mH.png
The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years. Each PRIMARY degree wave is constituted of five INTERMEDIATE degree waves; and in turn, so forth into smaller degree fractals.
The Bull Scenario suggests Wave-5 is still underway, with subdividing and extending waves headed for new all-time highs.
The Bear Scenario suggests Wave-5 completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure, and a bear market is underway. The majority of Altcoins favour an ongoing bear market.
Bull Scenario
The bullish scenario suggests a continuing bull market is underway. PRIMARY[5] wave started from the 06-FEB-2019 low, and has completed its first parabolic uptrend labelled as INTERMEDIATE(1) wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/tw6ZguX.png
Since the 26-JUN-2019 high, INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has been underway and has thus far declined 55% into the low of 18-DEC-2019.
The structure of INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline has thus far unfolded as three A-B-C waves of MINOR degree as follows:
—Wave-A decline started at the high of 26-JUN-2019 and completed as a complex structure at the low of 23-OCT-2019.
—Wave-B bounce started at the low of 23-OCT-2019 when the market suddenly spiked and surged over 40% within a day —attributed to news of Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly stating China should “seize the opportunity” offered by blockchain. The surge was the third largest 24-hour price gain in Bitcoin's history and a simple structure completed at the high of 26-OCT-2019.
—Wave-C decline has been underway since the high of 26-OCT-2019. At the low of 18-DEC-2019, Wave-C reached a Fibonacci 0.618% of Wave-A in length on notable BITFINEX and COINBASE exchanges; in addition, created positive divergence of price against momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index on the daily timeframe.
Given the potential of a completed correction as described in the aforementioned A-B-C decline, the market has arrived at a juncture to consider the end of INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline at the 18-DEC-2019 low.
To provide any credibility to this consideration, price is required to rise from the 18-DEC-2019 low and exceed the high of 29-NOV-2019. In addition, price Is required to unfold in five impulsive i-ii-iii-iv-v rising waves. Thus far as of Christmas Eve, price has risen in one wave from the 18-DEC-2019 low and is below the 29-NOV-2019 high.
Alternatively, the INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline is still to further subdivide and extend lower. A decline below the 18-DEC-2019 low confirms an ongoing INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline. The following Fibonacci-based levels may be sought as support zones to conclude the pullback; using COINBASE pricing:
@5431: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE(1) wave from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. @5374: MINOR C = MINOR A * 0.786 @4358: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE(1) wave from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?] 
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/6ORFqnV.png
Using the Greyscale Bitcoin Fund (GBTC) as a proxy to Bitcoin, the rise from the 18-DEC-2019 low thus far, as of Christmas Eve, appears corrective. Therefore, price action currently favours an ongoing decline:
—GBTC: https://i.imgur.com/W5TNedb.png
Once INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has completed, a rising INTERMEDIATE(3) is expected to commence and resume the bull market. Such a wave is expected to unfold parabolically in nature, and at a minimum, meet or exceed the PRIMARY[3] high set on 17-DEC-2017. In both price and time, this wave is expected to be the longest of the PRIMARY[5] bull market.
Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.
From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 or 2.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 or $35,127 or $54,892, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1 @35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618 @54892: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 2.618 
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/PnMZf9x.png
As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.
Bear Scenario
The bear market scenario suggests the 2019 bull market was a short-lived affair, and PRIMARY[5] terminated as a failed-fifth truncated wave.
PRIMARY[5] started from the 15-DEC-2018 low and completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high. A Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of this uptrend is at 4350 COINBASE —a decline to this point ought to signal the market has favoured to deflate.
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/sOefCp8.png
In this scenario, five completed PRIMARY degree waves have completed a CYCLE I wave structure. And now, a CYCLE II wave bear market pullback is underway and headed to break below the 2018 low.
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/fJGOI7e.png
The wider cryptocurrency market in terms of the Altcoins currently appear to support the outlook of a bear market. So far in 2019, the price structure of majority Altcoins has seemingly unfolded in corrective A-B-C advancing waves, instead of impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 waves. This suggests the majority of Altcoins may be set to break their respective 2018 lows unless an intervention can be coordinated…
—ETH: https://i.imgur.com/HAqzXoE.png
—LTC: https://i.imgur.com/OoZOuMa.png
—XRP: https://i.imgur.com/hNGFkpw.png
Stockmarket
The outlook for the major global equity stockmarkets, in particular the USA, is extremely bullish.
From the 2009 low of the great financial crises, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index has risen in four PRIMARY degree waves, with a fifth and final rising wave underway which began from the low of 2018.
In 2020, the stockmarket will be entering its 11th bull market year since the low of 2009. Fibonacci numbers next in sequence are 13, 21, 34. Therefore, the stockmarket isn’t likely to run into major headwinds until 2022; or until 2030 if the bull market extends to 21 years:
—DJIA (1915-2019) https://i.imgur.com/h65uK1h.png
—DJIA (2009-2019): https://i.imgur.com/Jltyekg.png
Since the Brexit vote in 2016, the UK FTSE100 has been directionless. With clarity now emerging on Brexit since the 12-DEC-2019 UK election, the FTSE100 is poised to resume a strong bull market:
—FTSE100 (1988-2019): https://i.imgur.com/4omkDHD.png
Analysis is purely speculative, and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time. Merry Christmas!
submitted by 12345abcde00001 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Review: The most thrilling 24 hours in Bitcoin history

From 12:00 on March 12th to 12:00 on the 13th, Bitcoin, the most influential currency in the cryptocurrency industry, suffered two major declines, and its price fell from a maximum of 7,672 USD to a minimum of 3,800 USD (data from Huobi, the next Same), the decline was 50.4%, which means that the price of Bitcoin has achieved a fairly accurate "half price" in these 24 hours.
Previously, Bitcoin's "halving market" was mostly considered to be an increase in market prices caused by Bitcoin's halving production, although many people have questioned the "halving market" as " The price is halved ", but when bitcoin walks out of the current bad market, it still surprises most investors.
First plunge
The bad 24 hours started at 12 o'clock on March 12. Due to the rapid spread of the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States, the global financial markets have been raining for several days. After several adjustments, the price of Bitcoin has hovered up and down within the range of $ 7600-8200 in the previous three days. However, after 12 o'clock on the 12th, Bitcoin The price fell below $ 7,600 for the first time, breaking the psychological expectations of many investors, entering a rapid decline channel, and dropping to about $ 7,200 at around 18 o'clock.
At this time, the decline of Bitcoin is still around 7%, which is a common occurrence in the history of Bitcoin. However, after 18 o'clock that day, the market turned sharply, and the price of bitcoin plunged again in a short period of time. It fell to US $ 5,555 within tens of minutes, a drop of 28%, and the amount of contractual positions on each platform exceeded US $ 2 billion.
During the decline, most major exchanges such as Huobi, Binance, and OKEx experienced systemic freezes of varying degrees. Many users complained for a long time that the exchange app could not properly display the homepage, market page, and transaction page, and added positions, stops, and withdrawals. Obstacles such as cash withdrawal and cash withdrawal operations have also shown that this situation also highlights that mainstream exchanges still fail to address the ability of their trading systems to respond to extreme conditions.
For this decline, the collective sell-off of large Bitcoin holders is considered to be the main reason. For example, Grayscale Investment, the world's largest crypto asset fund management company, was sold and sold 40,000-50,000 Bitcoins. News from the exchange said that Bitcoin sold 400,000.
For a long time, bitcoin has been called "digital gold" by the blockchain industry, and has good risk aversion properties. During the tense situation between the United States and Iran in January this year and the global stock market fell, Bitcoin rose from $ 7,200 all the way to more than $ 10,000. Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes have been widely recognized in history, but this time caused by the new crown epidemic Under the risk of the global economic downturn, the decline in the price of bitcoin has become the asset with the largest depreciation among various mainstream financial assets, and its high-risk nature will most likely collapse.
Some analysts believe that bitcoin should be further classified as an alternative asset. At a time when liquidity shortage is extremely serious, as a high-risk alternative investment asset with the highest volatility in the world, funds will naturally be drawn from the market by investors. Looking for safer, more liquid assets, prices plummet.
"Everyone in the future will realize that Bitcoin is not digital gold, but" an amplifier of risk. " Its value cannot be anchored. Unlike other asset prices, which are affected by costs and prices, Bitcoin has no normal market value range. As of now, it does not have any convincing valuation basis, more like a swaying boat. Without the anchor, its value fluctuates greatly, and the impact of halving the market and supply and demand on it is far less important than psychological factors. "Said Cai Kailong, senior researcher at the Institute of Financial Technology of Renmin University of China.
However, some people in the industry hold different opinions. "BTC is still the most powerful currency in the history of mankind. It provides liquidity 24 hours a day. This is something that other markets simply can't imagine, but because liquidity is too good, this time it just happened to happen in other markets. When funds are scarce, the first choice for selling supplementary funds has also led to the decline of gold. Of course, the amount of BTC that is currently much lower than gold is certainly unstoppable in a short period of time. "A Weibo blogger" "fhrp".
In addition to the sell-off of large institutions, some mortgage lending platforms have also passively become an important boost for this downturn. In the past six months, the Defi concept has been particularly hot in the blockchain industry, and many cryptocurrency-based cryptocurrency lending platforms were born.
As a result, a large number of large Bitcoin users will pledge the Bitcoin in their accounts to third-party lending platforms and use the USDT to borrow cash to purchase cash, which is equivalent to increasing leverage. However, these platforms are not mature in terms of mortgage rate setting and liquidation mechanisms. Users who increase the mortgage rate of assets have a slower transfer speed on the chain. As a result, during this period of rapid decline in the market, a large number of mortgage orders have lower mortgage assets than loans. As a result, the amount of bitcoin out-of-market positions this time was far more than in the previous period of large market volatility, which further exacerbated the selling pressure of the bitcoin spot market.
From 19:00 on the 12th to the early morning of the 13th, the price of Bitcoin hovered in the range of 5800-6200 US dollars, and the market began to prepare for the next stage of the trend.
Second plunge
On the evening of the 12th, the stock markets of mainstream countries in Europe and the United States successively opened and collectively fell, and the stock markets of at least 11 countries, such as the United States, Canada, and the Philippines, melted down. At the close of the morning on the 13th, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 Index had the largest single-day percentage decline since the 1987 stock disaster. The Dow closed down about 2352 points, the largest drop in history.
The bad performance of the stock market quickly passed to the currency market. Beginning at 7 o'clock on the 13th, the price of bitcoin plunged from the position of $ 5,800 once again, dropping all the way, and successively fell below $ 5,000 and $ 4,000.
For the rapid decline of the market, many people in the industry believe that the main factor is not only the panic selling of the market, but also the mutual stepping on of contract investors. Weibo blogger "AlbertTheKing" pointed out that most of the long positions in Bitcoin leverage are in the BitMEX perpetual contract market. The long positions caused by the decline in bitcoin prices caused a series of short positions, which in turn caused arbitrage spreads and spot arbitrage. The party rushed in to open multiple orders and sell spot arbitrage at the same time, thinking it was okay. As a result, I did not expect Bitcoin to fall more and more fiercely, and his own arbitrage and long positions also burst. So at first, the leveraged bulls stepped down on each other, and later became the arbitrage party. .
"Fhrp" also pointed out that because BitMEX only has BTC margin, ETH's permanent liquidation also needs to be undertaken by btc. The profit portion of the hedge order cannot be included in the margin, and BTC is not sufficient because of the card being in serious shortage. The exploding warehouse order was opaque, so that no one dared to pick up the corpse later, fearing that it would become a corpse. Of course, the key is the lack of a fusing system, so that the market can slowly wait for liquidity to keep up.
Under the interweaving of many risks, the price of bitcoin is about 10:15. It has fallen below 3,800 US dollars in many exchanges such as Huobi and OKEx, which is 38% lower than the price of 0 on the day and 50.4% lower than 24 hours ago. This is the highest record in the 24-hour drop since the birth of Bitcoin.
Such a precise decline cannot be doubted as the bad taste of the bookmaker behind the exchange, if the bookmaker does exist. Of course, it is not excluded that this situation is due to the tacit understanding among the main market participants, or a purely natural phenomenon.
But judging from objective facts, there is indeed some evidence that the situation is unnatural. After bitcoin hit a low of $ 3,800, its price quickly rose in the next 20 minutes, rising by 59% to $ 5,250, but then fell rapidly. At the turning point of $ 3,800, which is 10:16, the BitMEX trading system, the largest bitcoin exchange in the cryptocurrency industry, suddenly stopped until 10:40.
It can be seen that the time point when the Bitcoin price stopped falling rapidly and stopped rising rapidly was close to the time point when BitMEX went down and returned to normal. This shows that BitMEX has a huge influence on the secondary market, and it also makes a lot of One suspects BitMEX is manipulating the market.
Sam Bankman-Fried, chief executive of Derivatives Exchange FTX, tweeted that he suspects BitMEX may have intentionally closed transactions to prevent further crashes and to avoid using exchange insurance funds. Mining company BitPico also tweeted yesterday, "According to our analysis, BitMEX Research has closed its long position of $ 993 million with its own robots and capital. Today the manipulation of the bitcoin market is caused by an entity and the investigation is ongoing. "
In response to this incident, BitMEX responded that there was a hardware problem with the cloud service provider, and in a subsequent announcement, it was pointed out that the DDoS attack was the real cause of the short-term downtime.
Why the downtime of the BitMEX trading system is difficult to verify, but from its objective impact, its short-term downtime plays a vital role in curbing the further decline in the price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which has eased investment to a certain extent. The panic sentiment created by this has created space for the rebound and correction of cryptocurrency prices such as Bitcoin.
Sam Bankman-Fried even speculated that if BitMEX did not go offline because of a "hardware problem" this morning (February 13), the price of Bitcoin could fall to zero.
If compared with the traditional financial market, the effect of this BitMEX outage event is quite similar to the "fuse" mechanism of the stock market. Trading is suspended for dozens of minutes at the moment when investor sentiment is most panic, so this outage event Also aroused the emotions of many people in the industry.
"BitMEX has helped the currency circle" melt out, "otherwise the chainless stepping will not know where to fall. After the fuse, everyone calmed down and the market returned to normal. Weibo blogger "Blockchain William" posted a blog saying, "The market is not afraid of falling, and it is not afraid of stepping on it. That is why. This is why the global stock market has melted down because investors panic. It is a bottomless pit. Once out of control, there is no bottom Now. "
Of course, the factors that cause the market situation to reverse are not limited to this. According to the feedback from multiple users on social platforms, BitMEX and Binance's major exchanges forced the short positions of multiple accounts to close positions at 10 o'clock on March 13th, that is, the automatic lightening mechanism was in effect.
According to the BitMEX platform mechanism, when investor contracts are forced to close out, their remaining positions will be taken over by BitMEX's strong closing system. However, if a strong liquidation position cannot be closed in the market, and when the marked price reaches the bankruptcy price, the automatic lightening system will lighten the investor holding the position in the opposite direction, and the order of lightening is determined according to the leverage and profit ratio .
Specifically, due to the sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, a large number of long single-series bursts and the scarcity of market liquidity. In order to control the risk, the platform will automatically place some short orders with high profit ratios and high leverage on the market, increasing market flow. It also avoids the risk to the platform caused by the inability of the short-selling order to be executed in a timely manner.
According to BitMEX's announcement, about 200 positions were automatically closed by the system. And Twitter blogger Edward Morra said, "On BitMEX alone, short positions worth about $ 500 million have been liquidated." If this data is true, it means that BitMEX's strong liquidation operation has brought more than 5 to the contract market. The market price of 100 million US dollars has a significant positive effect on the market that is being sold out.
However, as a compensation, BitMEX also stated that it would contact each damaged user and compensate them according to the maximum potential profit that the investor obtained during the automatic liquidation.
In any case, through the operation of exchanges such as BitMEX, the price of bitcoin has entered a recovery channel, and it is still hovering at the $ 5,000 mark, while driving the entire cryptocurrency market to pick up.
After this thrilling 24 hours of bitcoin, the ideal "halving market" has disappeared. The real and brutal "halving market" is coming. Perhaps many investors and investment institutions have expressed their confidence in the crypto assets represented by bitcoin. The understanding will change in this regard, and the confidence of the entire industry needs to be rebuilt. This depends on the application value of bitcoin to be deepened.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?

05-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Bull Market…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
20-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50681435#msg50681435
12-MAY-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51017295#msg51017295
17-JUN-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51505513#msg51505513
28-JUL-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51975328#msg51975328
26-OCT-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Trick or Treat…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531
24-NOV-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Thanksgiving Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53171045#msg53171045
24-DEC-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Christmas Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53430396#msg53430396
Since the orthodox bear market low on 06-FEB-2019, the Bitcoin markets have surged to an average 125% gain in approx 100 days approaching mid-MAY. The 3-month rally has now retraced a Fibonacci 23.6% of the entire 2018 bear market. True to form, the bull market has exerted itself in a parabolic rise.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, five waves appear to have completed as follows:
+ Wave-1: 24-FEB - Wave-2: 27-FEB + Wave-3: 23-APR - Wave-4: 25-APR + Wave-5: 12-MAY (?) 
Given the comparative magnitude and timeframe of the aforementioned waves, the waves are now being considered as MINOR degree. Barring any wave extensions, it appears five MINOR waves have completed, and thus completing the first INTERMEDIATE degree wave of the bull market. A wave of INTERMEDIATE degree usually elapses from weeks to months towards completion.
The expectation now suggests the first notable pullback of the bull market to imminently commence, unfolding in a three wave A-B-C structure. The following are averaged target zones for the pullback, using BITSTAMP prices:
@5400: approx 50% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 11-MAY rally (minimum expected decline zone). @4888: approx 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 11-MAY rally (average expected decline zone). @4155: approx 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 11-MAY rally (maximum expected decline zone). 
The first notable pullback of the 2015-2017 bull market retraced approx 78.6% in size, elapsing approx 6 months until late AUG-2015.
A decline to the 06-FEB low would terminate the proposed wave structure, and quite possibly the bull market.
Once the pullback completes, the third and most powerful wave of the 2019+ bull market ought to commence towards the psychological $10,000 level and beyond.
BITSTAMP Resistance Zones: 7510, 8500, 9440, 11395, 13350 BITSTAMP Support Zones: 7030, 6900, 6410, 5920, 5215, 4320 
Since 2016, both the stockmarket and Bitcoin markets have been in synchronisation: both started bull markets in 2016, both had bear markets in 2018, both resumed bull markets in 2019.
Seasonally, the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage is currently being expressed in the stockmarket.
Since the beginning of May, the Dow Jones has declined 4.50% —the largest decline since the 2019 bull market commenced.
Should the Bitcoin markets decline in MAY, a continued synchronisation may suggest further declines in the stockmarket.
A break below the 25-MAR low of 25,370 in the Dow Jones may suggest further declines, a break below the 11-MAR low of 25,200 would confirm a stockmarket pullback to be underway. If so, an approx 10% decline in the stockmarket towards Dow Jones 24,000 may be expected, followed by resumption of the bull market to new all-time highs. A rise above Dow Jones 26,500 ought to obviate the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage.
Analysis is speculative, and charts are indicative of price/structure —not time. The projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated, perhaps not at all…!
submitted by 12345abcde00001 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious
The end is here.
tl;dr - I am down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151. Best performer of 2018 is Stellar, down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
Click here for full blog post complete with charts, graphs, and charts of graphs.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. It began as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), but I've moved away from that terminology as things have changed quite a bit since January 1st, 2018 (plus the term "Index Fund" seems to bring out the shills trying to sell their own Crypto Index Fund product).
My experiment is less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the entire market- or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018 crypto space. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

MONTH/EPISODE TWELVE AND FINAL TALLY - Down 85% in 2018

https://preview.redd.it/d67ec8cg0t821.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=da298dda0431a69ab560b2e8d6e3b15e0e7f9763
December was a quiet month for the experiment - not many fireworks to end the year. Although my portfolio did reach yet another record loss at -85%, it only ticked down one percentage point from the previous month. For comparison, the Dow Jones lost over -6% in December.
Finally tally for the year: I am now down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151.
December Winners - It was a nice change to see a bit of green on my spreadsheet for the last month of the year. Winners: Ethereum and IOTAup an impressive 39% and 30% respectively. Litecoin ticked up 5% as well.
December Losers - Stellar had an uncharacteristically rough month, losing about 1/3 of its value in December. More predictably NEM, which has been a regular cellar-dweller for many of my monthly reports, fared poorly, down -15% in December.

FINAL RESULTS for 2018 – Stellar wins the experiment followed by Bitcoin. Cardano and Bitcoin Cash in virtual tie for worst performance of the year.

Even though Stellar had a rough December, it still ended the experiment solidly in first place followed fairly closely by Bitcoin. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following the experiment - Stellar has been consistently one of the best performing cryptos each time I report.
Stellar's victory is definitely Pyrrhic, as "winning" 2018 meant losing -66% of its value since January 1st, 2018. Second place Bitcoin? Down -71% on the year.
If that's victory, what's defeat?
Defeat is Cardano and Bitcoin Cash, virtually tied at -94% on the year. For the record, Cardano did slightly worse: my $100 invested in Cardano is now worth $5.97 and my $100 invested in Bitcoin Cash $6.32.
Cardano and Bitcoin Cash are closely followed by NEM and Dash, and all four are members of the "Down Over -90% Club." IOTA's strong December helped it narrowly avoid this distinction as it is now down "only" -89% for the year.
Summary: best performer of 2018 is down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
I'll just let that sink in for a while.
In terms of movement, there was a lot of it: 40% of the cryptos that started the year in the Top Ten have now dropped out. Here's a chart:
https://preview.redd.it/5p04wxbm0t821.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ddfb3a4f46aa196e56e3b93d4968bc91400900b
Interestingly, the Top Four ended up in the same top positions after 365 days.
On the other hand, NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS (now at #5), Tether (currently at #8), Bitcoin SV (currently at #9), and Tron (currently at #10).

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/clzti39p0t821.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=13bcd89a9dc2ace72a95edcd6669295aec589c72
December was basically flat, as the total market cap for crypto hovered right around $130B. A nice little pause from four consecutive record low month-end points since the end of August.
Final figure: the total market cap for crypto dropped -77% in 2018.
Looking back, March was the worst month of the year in terms of both overall amount and percentage loss. Best month-end figure was end of January at $485B.
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $500B: January
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $400B: May
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $300B: June
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $200B: November

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/1xfbsjas0t821.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c2f8bc82402dec6bda2046b62e5da0a3794b273
Bitcoin dominance dropped slightly from the month-end record highs at the end of October and November, but it's basically been holding steady since the end of August, right around the 50% mark. Too early to tell if the slight drop from 53% to 51% Bitcoin dominance from November to December indicates that buyers are looking at more risky alt-coins, we'll have to wait a bit to see if/how that plays out.
As we've seen this throughout the experiment, when the overall market dives, BTC's dominance increases.
  • 33% Bitcoin dominance at the end of January was the lowest month-end point of the year
  • 53.6% Bitcoin dominance at the end of October was the highest month-end point of the year

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/vbhh3chw0t821.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=36430e9b960efc60de2fa286a2265b816cbc0560
If I wrapped up my experiment and cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $151.81, down -85%.
  • Lowest Top Ten portfolio value: December
  • Highest Top Ten portfolio value: January

Implications/Observations:

The numbers back up what all who were even remotely paying attention to crypto this year noticed: 2018 was not 2017. Beginning 2018 at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and I was never able to come close to just breaking even - my "best" month was end of January where I was "only" down -20%.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse - hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day have seen a -85% drop - but yes, it could have been even worse.
Congratulations to Stellar who outperformed its peers in 2018 and was consistently among the monthly top performers.
Focusing solely on holding the Top Ten was a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -77% from January, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period of time. At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial Top Ten continue to under-perform compared to the market overall. The 8% difference is significant, but it has shrunk a bit - it was as wide as a 12% difference at one point during the year (September).
I also tracked the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a relatively strong year, the S & P 500 tanked in December, finishing down -6.2% on the year. Had I redirected my $1k investment to the S&P, I would have lost about -$62 on the year.
https://preview.redd.it/mxk3jehy0t821.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=116d5e2f23d8b3255cb5eea1a75655ea9091bcba

Conclusion:

Tough year for crypto, to say the least. The year end question is the same one we've been asking all year: is there more room to fall or have we finally hit the bottom for crypto?

Thanks and Future of the Experiment:

Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful.
As for the future of the experiment, after receiving some good suggestions, I've decided to do the following:
  1. There's no way I'm selling now at such a loss. Therefore, I'll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten cryptos of 2018 as I've been doing.
  2. I've also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten cryptos of 2019. On the 1st of January 2019, I purchased $100 worth of the Top Ten: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Stellar, Tether, Litecoin, Bitcoin SV, and Tron.
I honestly wasn't very enthusiastic to buy $100 worth of some of these coins, but I think it will be interesting to compare the Top Ten of 2018 with the Top Ten of 2019 to see how they fare. I'll share the results regularly - I'm aiming for monthly, as I did in 2018.
So - I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Stellar Victorious - EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85%

Stellar Victorious - EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85%
The end is here.
tl;dr - I am down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151. Best performer of 2018 is Stellar, down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
Click here for full blog post complete with charts, graphs, and charts of graphs.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. It began as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), but I've moved away from that terminology as things have changed quite a bit since January 1st, 2018 (plus the term "Index Fund" seems to bring out the shills trying to sell their own Crypto Index Fund product).
My experiment is less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the entire market- or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018 crypto space. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

MONTH/EPISODE TWELVE AND FINAL TALLY - Down 85% in 2018

https://preview.redd.it/jx4d8u662t821.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a6cbd527492057f939c39f55c0697c454aa3847
December was a quiet month for the experiment - not many fireworks to end the year. Although my portfolio did reach yet another record loss at -85%, it only ticked down one percentage point from the previous month. For comparison, the Dow Jones lost over -6% in December.
Finally tally for the year: I am now down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151.
December Winners - It was a nice change to see a bit of green on my spreadsheet for the last month of the year. Winners: Ethereum and IOTAup an impressive 39% and 30% respectively. Litecoin ticked up 5% as well.
December Losers - Stellar had an uncharacteristically rough month, losing about 1/3 of its value in December. More predictably NEM, which has been a regular cellar-dweller for many of my monthly reports, fared poorly, down -15% in December.

FINAL RESULTS for 2018 – Stellar wins the experiment followed by Bitcoin. Cardano and Bitcoin Cash in virtual tie for worst performance of the year.

Even though Stellar had a rough December, it still ended the experiment solidly in first place followed fairly closely by Bitcoin. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following the experiment - Stellar has been consistently one of the best performing cryptos each time I report.
Stellar's victory is definitely Pyrrhic, as "winning" 2018 meant losing -66% of its value since January 1st, 2018. Second place Bitcoin? Down -71% on the year.
If that's victory, what's defeat?
Defeat is Cardano and Bitcoin Cash, virtually tied at -94% on the year. For the record, Cardano did slightly worse: my $100 invested in Cardano is now worth $5.97 and my $100 invested in Bitcoin Cash $6.32.
Cardano and Bitcoin Cash are closely followed by NEM and Dash, and all four are members of the "Down Over -90% Club." IOTA's strong December helped it narrowly avoid this distinction as it is now down "only" -89% for the year.
Summary: best performer of 2018 is down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
I'll just let that sink in for a while.
In terms of movement, there was a lot of it: 40% of the cryptos that started the year in the Top Ten have now dropped out. Here's a chart:
https://preview.redd.it/zvlgkpd72t821.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d58ec97bfb3c4b742adc30d1244695fbeaf5f64
Interestingly, the Top Four ended up in the same top positions after 365 days.
On the other hand, NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS (now at #5), Tether (currently at #8), Bitcoin SV (currently at #9), and Tron (currently at #10).

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/8w75j6f82t821.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=c27789f5c6dd3e946bf5c8e29bf285db300c9b41
December was basically flat, as the total market cap for crypto hovered right around $130B. A nice little pause from four consecutive record low month-end points since the end of August.
Final figure: the total market cap for crypto dropped -77% in 2018.
Looking back, March was the worst month of the year in terms of both overall amount and percentage loss. Best month-end figure was end of January at $485B.
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $500B: January
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $400B: May
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $300B: June
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $200B: November

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/jptpvni92t821.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=43070ae9fe03aaf451589758825cdc1528432fb6
Bitcoin dominance dropped slightly from the month-end record highs at the end of October and November, but it's basically been holding steady since the end of August, right around the 50% mark. Too early to tell if the slight drop from 53% to 51% Bitcoin dominance from November to December indicates that buyers are looking at more risky alt-coins, we'll have to wait a bit to see if/how that plays out.
As we've seen this throughout the experiment, when the overall market dives, BTC's dominance increases.
  • 33% Bitcoin dominance at the end of January was the lowest month-end point of the year
  • 53.6% Bitcoin dominance at the end of October was the highest month-end point of the year

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/rcxjkfra2t821.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=93cdceaeff7fe5b9c7ab5aa04fdc3f1a6f03d1bf
If I wrapped up my experiment and cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $151.81, down -85%.
  • Lowest Top Ten portfolio value: December
  • Highest Top Ten portfolio value: January

Implications/Observations:

The numbers back up what all who were even remotely paying attention to crypto this year noticed: 2018 was not 2017. Beginning 2018 at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and I was never able to come close to just breaking even - my "best" month was end of January where I was "only" down -20%.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse - hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day have seen a -85% drop - but yes, it could have been even worse.
Congratulations to Stellar who outperformed its peers in 2018 and was consistently among the monthly top performers.
Focusing solely on holding the Top Ten was a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -77% from January, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period of time. At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial Top Ten continue to under-perform compared to the market overall. The 8% difference is significant, but it has shrunk a bit - it was as wide as a 12% difference at one point during the year (September).
I also tracked the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a relatively strong year, the S & P 500 tanked in December, finishing down -6.2% on the year. Had I redirected my $1k investment to the S&P, I would have lost about -$62 on the year.
https://preview.redd.it/cvtvzrvb2t821.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc50928366796b4a48812034e2a7b1fff5997652

Conclusion:

Tough year for crypto, to say the least. The year end question is the same one we've been asking all year: is there more room to fall or have we finally hit the bottom for crypto?

Thanks and Future of the Experiment:

Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful.
As for the future of the experiment, after receiving some good suggestions, I've decided to do the following:
  1. There's no way I'm selling now at such a loss. Therefore, I'll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten cryptos of 2018 as I've been doing.
  2. I've also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten cryptos of 2019. On the 1st of January 2019, I purchased $100 worth of the Top Ten: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Stellar, Tether, Litecoin, Bitcoin SV, and Tron.
I honestly wasn't very enthusiastic to buy $100 worth of some of these coins, but I think it will be interesting to compare the Top Ten of 2018 with the Top Ten of 2019 to see how they fare. I'll share the results regularly - I'm aiming for monthly, as I did in 2018.
So - I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to Stellar [link] [comments]

Gold, Not Bitcoin, Is Drawing Haven Demand on US Recession Fears

Gold, Not Bitcoin, Is Drawing Haven Demand on US Recession Fears


Fears of a U.S. recession have resurfaced over the last two days and the resulting risk aversion is bringing a boost to gold. For bitcoin, though, it’s a different story.
The U.S. Institute of Supply Management said Tuesday its manufacturing index fell to a 10-year low of 47.8 percent last month from 49.1 percent in August. A below-50 reading indicates contraction in manufacturing activity.
The gloomy data suggests a boosted risk of a recession in 2020, as seen in the chart below tweeted by popular analyst Holger Zschaepitz.

  • The probability of the U.S. economy falling into a recession next year is now greater than 40 percent.
  • The Treasury yield curve (U.S. bonds) is pricing in a 60 percent chance of recession, according to the JPMorgan data.
The threat of a recession has sent global equities lower. Notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 450 points in day two of a sell-off.
Meanwhile, gold has risen from $1,460 to $1,500 per ounce in the last 48 hours and is now looking to extend gains. The yellow metal, a classic safe haven asset, is clearly benefiting from the recession concerns and the resulting risk aversion.
Bitcoin, however, has been largely trapped in a $8,200–$8,500 range since Tuesday. In fact, the top cryptocurrency’s bounce from recent lows near $7,700 has run out of steam near the 200-day moving average (MA) resistance at $8,483 over the last 48 hours.
The lack of demand for bitcoin as a safe haven asset amid the economic worries appears to contradict the argument often put forward by many observers that the cryptocurrency is digital gold.
Many investors also consider BTC as a store of value and a hedge against the aggressive expansionary monetary policies adopted by the major central banks. The odds of Federal Reserve delivering 2019’s third interest rate cut in October have gone up from 40 to 64 percent over the last two days, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Even so, BTC is struggling to find bids. In fact, the cryptocurrency fell from $10,000 to $8,000 in September despite the European Central Bank’s decision to cut rates by 10 basis points to -0.50 percent.
These factors suggest BTC is yet to take over the role of a classic safe haven and remains a largely uncorrelated asset.
The situation may change in the future, though, if traditional investor participation in the cryptocurrency market increases. After all, BTC seems to have all the properties of haven assets. For instance, it is not linked to government currencies and is deflationary in nature, which gives it an innate value, like rare metals, as noted by Reuters.
As for the next 24 hours, the probability of BTC falling below $8,000 is high, as per the technical charts.

Daily and 4-hour charts


On Tuesday, bitcoin created a doji candle — a sign of indecision — at the 200-day moving average, aborting the corrective bounce from recent lows near $7,700.
A convincing move above the 200-day MA, currently at $8,483, would invite stronger buying pressure, as discussed earlier this week.
A break above the key average looks unlikely, however, as the 4-hour chart (above right) is reporting a failed double bottom breakout — Tuesday’s move above the trendline was short-lived. The failed breakout indicates the sentiment is still quite bearish and validates the price-negative readings on the longer duration indicators.
The 4-hour chart relative strength index has fallen back below 50, indicating bearish conditions. As a result, a fall back to levels below $8,000 looks likely.
If the 200-day MA is breached, a quick move to$8,900 could be seen, as the daily chart MACD histogram is producing higher lows — a sign of weakening bearish momentum.
Overall, the outlook will remain bearish as long as prices are trading below $9,097.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin image via CoinDesk Archives; charts by Trading View
submitted by GTE_IO to u/GTE_IO [link] [comments]

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious
The end is here.
tl;dr - I am down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151. Best performer of 2018 is Stellar, down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
Click here for full blog post complete with charts, graphs, and charts of graphs.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. It began as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), but I've moved away from that terminology as things have changed quite a bit since January 1st, 2018 (plus the term "Index Fund" seems to bring out the shills trying to sell their own Crypto Index Fund product).
My experiment is less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the entire market- or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018 crypto space. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

MONTH/EPISODE TWELVE AND FINAL TALLY - Down 85% in 2018

https://preview.redd.it/9xtqjbxu2t821.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a3bd521eaf1cc0e2c49d582fa7a4f9b2180040f
December was a quiet month for the experiment - not many fireworks to end the year. Although my portfolio did reach yet another record loss at -85%, it only ticked down one percentage point from the previous month. For comparison, the Dow Jones lost over -6% in December.
Finally tally for the year: I am now down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151.
December Winners - It was a nice change to see a bit of green on my spreadsheet for the last month of the year. Winners: Ethereum and IOTAup an impressive 39% and 30% respectively. Litecoin ticked up 5% as well.
December Losers - Stellar had an uncharacteristically rough month, losing about 1/3 of its value in December. More predictably NEM, which has been a regular cellar-dweller for many of my monthly reports, fared poorly, down -15% in December.

FINAL RESULTS for 2018 – Stellar wins the experiment followed by Bitcoin. Cardano and Bitcoin Cash in virtual tie for worst performance of the year.

Even though Stellar had a rough December, it still ended the experiment solidly in first place followed fairly closely by Bitcoin. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following the experiment - Stellar has been consistently one of the best performing cryptos each time I report.
Stellar's victory is definitely Pyrrhic, as "winning" 2018 meant losing -66% of its value since January 1st, 2018. Second place Bitcoin? Down -71% on the year.
If that's victory, what's defeat?
Defeat is Cardano and Bitcoin Cash, virtually tied at -94% on the year. For the record, Cardano did slightly worse: my $100 invested in Cardano is now worth $5.97 and my $100 invested in Bitcoin Cash $6.32.
Cardano and Bitcoin Cash are closely followed by NEM and Dash, and all four are members of the "Down Over -90% Club." IOTA's strong December helped it narrowly avoid this distinction as it is now down "only" -89% for the year.
Summary: best performer of 2018 is down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
I'll just let that sink in for a while.
In terms of movement, there was a lot of it: 40% of the cryptos that started the year in the Top Ten have now dropped out. Here's a chart:
https://preview.redd.it/edx09fsv2t821.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdd3f1fd658e48943f2d012e910d27d8a17a32ac
Interestingly, the Top Four ended up in the same top positions after 365 days.
On the other hand, NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS (now at #5), Tether (currently at #8), Bitcoin SV (currently at #9), and Tron (currently at #10).

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/rli9zc7x2t821.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdef69e9d971979efd622e8bc0dd79759a15df1a
December was basically flat, as the total market cap for crypto hovered right around $130B. A nice little pause from four consecutive record low month-end points since the end of August.
Final figure: the total market cap for crypto dropped -77% in 2018.
Looking back, March was the worst month of the year in terms of both overall amount and percentage loss. Best month-end figure was end of January at $485B.
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $500B: January
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $400B: May
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $300B: June
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $200B: November

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/96vcv6wx2t821.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e7d32b1577950f0625e907572da331175322dca
Bitcoin dominance dropped slightly from the month-end record highs at the end of October and November, but it's basically been holding steady since the end of August, right around the 50% mark. Too early to tell if the slight drop from 53% to 51% Bitcoin dominance from November to December indicates that buyers are looking at more risky alt-coins, we'll have to wait a bit to see if/how that plays out.
As we've seen this throughout the experiment, when the overall market dives, BTC's dominance increases.
  • 33% Bitcoin dominance at the end of January was the lowest month-end point of the year
  • 53.6% Bitcoin dominance at the end of October was the highest month-end point of the year

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/wc77vyxy2t821.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=d00cd07109872e73249b1f8b378169620dbf25fa
If I wrapped up my experiment and cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $151.81, down -85%.
  • Lowest Top Ten portfolio value: December
  • Highest Top Ten portfolio value: January

Implications/Observations:

The numbers back up what all who were even remotely paying attention to crypto this year noticed: 2018 was not 2017. Beginning 2018 at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and I was never able to come close to just breaking even - my "best" month was end of January where I was "only" down -20%.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse - hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day have seen a -85% drop - but yes, it could have been even worse.
Congratulations to Stellar who outperformed its peers in 2018 and was consistently among the monthly top performers.
Focusing solely on holding the Top Ten was a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -77% from January, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period of time. At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial Top Ten continue to under-perform compared to the market overall. The 8% difference is significant, but it has shrunk a bit - it was as wide as a 12% difference at one point during the year (September).
I also tracked the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a relatively strong year, the S & P 500 tanked in December, finishing down -6.2% on the year. Had I redirected my $1k investment to the S&P, I would have lost about -$62 on the year.
https://preview.redd.it/phxacotz2t821.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=3234c1f75a7766857df7b5fe96dccab9c5a60ad6

Conclusion:

Tough year for crypto, to say the least. The year end question is the same one we've been asking all year: is there more room to fall or have we finally hit the bottom for crypto?

Thanks and Future of the Experiment:

Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful.
As for the future of the experiment, after receiving some good suggestions, I've decided to do the following:
  1. There's no way I'm selling now at such a loss. Therefore, I'll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten cryptos of 2018 as I've been doing.
  2. I've also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten cryptos of 2019. On the 1st of January 2019, I purchased $100 worth of the Top Ten: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Stellar, Tether, Litecoin, Bitcoin SV, and Tron.
I honestly wasn't very enthusiastic to buy $100 worth of some of these coins, but I think it will be interesting to compare the Top Ten of 2018 with the Top Ten of 2019 to see how they fare. I'll share the results regularly - I'm aiming for monthly, as I did in 2018.
So - I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Dear community! Check our new review about Ethereum Classic.

Dear community! Check our new review about Ethereum Classic.

Ethereum Classic.Review

https://preview.redd.it/3sa05ay67af11.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=791d6abb010d8adaf004279b956ee6f53013cf48
Cryptoindex is a tool for exposure to the cryptomarket and will serve as a great potential smart benchmark for all cryptocurrencies. The AI-based Cryptoindex algorithm is continuously analyzing more than 1000 coins applying over 170 factors, processing more than 1 million signals per second to provide a highly sophisticated index of the top 100 coins. You can find our previous reviews here:
TRON overview. Ripple - review. Further Perspectives Litecoin. June'18 overview The Dow Jones index. From where did it come to us? Bitcoin Cash. June 2018 overview Are cryptocurrency indices a new crypto market trend? EOS. End of May'18 overview Ethereum. May 2018 overview
Here on our Cryptoindex blog, we will be posting 100 articles about each of the top performing coins selected by our powerful AI algorithm#CIX100coinreview.
Today’s review: Ethereum Classic.
How was it?
The main network Ethereum was launched by Vitalik Buterin in 2015, as the Hard fork from Ethereum Classic on the block 1 900 000. Many users confuse this fact and believe that Ethereum Classic originated from Ethereum, but it did not.
Ethereum is a decentralized system.. Whilst Ethereum Classic has a similar function as ETH, including the creation and launch of smart contracts and decentralized application; However, it has some very different features, including the average block creation time, its size and reward to the miners.
Currently, there are three teams working on the Ethereum Classic network:
ETC Dev team of 6 people led by Igor Artamonovym develops Geth Classic. Ethereum Commonwealth team is working to create a Raiden network, ERC223, SWARM. The team is headed by the anonymous developer Dexaran from the Ehtereum Classic community. IOHK Grothendieck team - works on a client written in Scala. IOHK is headed by CEO Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of Ethereum and Ethereum Foundation.
Problems with DAO
The DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization. At the time of its appearance, the DAO positioned itself as an organization devoid of any staff or directors. Being a cloud platform, the share of which can be obtained by investing personal funds (in the form of ETH) and buying DAO-tokens on them, grants the right to participate in management of the invested collective funds.
The fund gained momentum and attracted the attention not only of investors and hackers. The result did not take long to wait and on Friday, June 17, there was a break-in. More than $ 50 million was stolen.
Following this, a huge community gathered around Ethereum and split into two camps the heated discussions commenced. Some suggested making a hard-core network, others opposed. Conservatives insisted that at one of their conferences Vitalik Buterin argued that the code - It is a law, which is unacceptable.
If we compare the two coins, then both advantages and disadvantages are apparent, but ETH still remains the dominant currency, as it has a larger market capitalization.
There are also significant differences between the two platforms:
Processing of network blocks- This process takes about 25 seconds for the ethereum and 14 seconds for the ethereum classic.
The volume of blocks- The ETH blocks are closed after reaching a daily number of transactions of 500 thousand. This is fraught with similar problems, as, for bitcoin, it can lead to an increase in the commission. The Ehtereum classic is not yet overloaded, but the situation may change if the flow of transactions increases.
Ethereum can make a hard fork in anytime- Ethereum Classic - can not.
Compatibility- While both networks are compatible, so written in one of them, smart contracts can run in the other. In addition, Ethereum seeks to open its platform through eWASM, pushing the issue of security contracts to second place. ETC puts more emphasis on smart contracts with higher security.
Features of the development- The initiator of most decisions in the ETH is the Ethereum Foundation. In ETC, the bulk of the solutions are the result of the work from three teams, sadly the lack of cohesion and feedback from the community it creates in a less desirable result.
Project Prospects
Unfortunately, most users still prefer Ethereum. Ethereum Classic has left a questionable reputation for DAO, which has been reflected in the number of users., No major project has been placed on the platform, which means that it will not make the TOP-5 at this rate.
The project has a fully functioning platform, several development teams, a fairly large community, including investors and active traders. ETC, on the one hand, is one step behind, and on the other hand, a step ahead, because as for testing the platform for them will be the forged Ethereum Vitalika Buterina, and Ethereum Classic will take from there only the best and already tested for them. Unlike its fork, Ethereum Classic has a more favorable pricing scheme meaning the cost of transactions is substantially lower than his fork. At the time of this writing, it is more than $ 1.5 billion.
At the time of writing, Ethereum Classic[ETC] is 0.671% of the total of CryptoIndex portfolio. You can always check the current CIX100 composition at our MVP platform: http://cryptoindex.ai/
Stay updated on our channels: Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Telegram Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Medium Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Twitter Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Facebook Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Linkedin Follow CRYPTOINDEX on Reddit
submitted by kkkc to CryptoIndex_io [link] [comments]

The (long-term) case for Bitcoin.

Here is why I think Bitcoin makes sense as a investment/hedge. TL:DR: From a macroeconomic outlook our economy is messed up in so many ways, thanks to central planners like Janet Yellen. The currency-wars have only begun, smart money will look for a way to hedge their currency exposure.
Money
Money is one of man’s greatest inventions. Since we left the barter system and started using mediums of exchange, different types of mediums has been used for trading. Gold, grain, salt amongst others, gold obviously being the most famous one. The right to redeem those papers you hold in your wallet for gold ended in a peculiar fashion with the death of Bretton Woods, and ever since then, we've been trading in fiat.(1). Like art, the intrinsic value of gold is definitely questionable. Yes, everyone does seem to desire gold, still it has very limited usefulness. Paper money being a lot worse, one could argue these unredeemable paper notes are worth as much as regular paper. But the fact that you need this fiat-money to pay taxes gives the market certainty of demand in the future, which I believe is the main reason why the markets are able to attribute these notes value.
Governmental control of money
As fiat became the predominant transmitter of wealth in our economy, governmental control over money increased. From a naive standpoint that power shift could seem unsignificant, but I would argue it has given us a profound shift in real economic activities. Money in the form of gold had a certain inflation built in to it, since people continuously dig it up from the ground. Yet the gold-economy saw price deflation as production became more efficient, thanks to the invisible hand of the market and advancements in technology. These deflationary powers were at times greater than the inflation coming from new gold findings. This might seem a little off topic but what I want to say is that price-deflation has historically been the norm, and shouldn't be viewed as dangerous. In todays fiat-world however, we hear about central banks trying to fight deflation, believing such an environment would be bad for the labour market. The argument being that workers have a hard time accepting lower nominal wages, and that this causes overwhelming troubles for companies when they have to cut labour costs. Although fairly logical, I think this theory is disputed by our economic history and should, in my (not so) humble opinion, definitely not be taken as a fact. However, today when we hear about central banks fighting deflation, what they're really fighting is a credit crunch. Debt, also a form of money, has been growing increasingly. Although taking a short break 07/08, the debt in ratio to almost everything, is a lot greater today than ever before. A deleveraging of debt would shrink the amount of debt-money (largely concentrated in stocks/bonds/real estate) and this is what centralbanks are fighting, their job is basically to get this overly leveraged economy more leveraged. Needless to say, we're in uncharted territory and their might be huge systemic risks involved.
Government deficits and unfunded liabilities
At which rate would you be willing to loan money to Greece? This one is really a no-brainier, meaning you shouldn't have to think to come up with an answer, since Greece wouldn't pay you back either way. Greece has a enormous debt and a whole lot of unfunded liabilities. These unfunded liabilities are mostly consisting of workers pensions and healthcare obligations to the greek people. Greek politicians will always rank these payment obligations as a higher priority expenditure than to give "greedy speculators" back their money. That simple fact holds true for most government bonds. Therefore I think almost all government bonds are worth substantially less than they are being priced today. Right now the market deems these bonds as low-risk assets. For example, the U.S 10-year bond yields around 2%. In other words; you'll get close to no return (if the FED manages to reach close to its inflation target) for loaning out your money to the worlds largest debtor nation for a period of ten years. This anomaly is so great and profound, it should be viewed as a major indicator on just how messed up things have become. How did we get these absurd yields? Well, demand for bonds drive the yields down, and ever since the financial crisis central banks like the FED and ECB has been on a buying spree. Speculators joined them in their buying and have been betting on the the continuing bondpurchasing from the CB's, or holding a belief that the CB's will be unable to reach inflation targets, basically taking a bet on deflation. In a real market economy (not driven by central banks) with a low savings rate like the United States, these bonds would yield a lot more. The fact is the U.S, much like Greece, can’t repay its debt, ever, it’s impossible, nope, can’t be done. The U.S national debt is around 18 trillion dollars and their unfunded liabilities sums up to another whopping 210 trillion (as testified to congress by Boston university economic professor Laurence Kotlikoff).(2) Even though a lot of these future expenditures as Kotlikoff is including in his measurment could be slashed, some of them, like pensions, are going to be extremely unpopular to cut. I would say the writing has been on the wall for quite some time.
Default or inflate
The question we should ask ourselves is whether they’ll inflate their currency and repay their debt in dollars that are worth less, or if they’re simply going to default. In the former case we could see a German-like inflation with barrels of money to buy bread. In the latter case we could see the economy as we know it coming to a grinding halt. Either way I believe this anomaly will sort itself out in the end. I strongly believe that this interference with the market, basically not allowing price discovery to take place, has paved the way for certain economic disasters. Something that has been argued for a long time by gold-bugs and various outspoken skeptics. Although gold certainly would be a good trade for such an environment, I would not recommend buying gold at your friendly bank. Taking a lesson from what happened in the last crisis banks seem to have a high risk of defaulting, which would leave them unable to deliver on your gold position in the paper markets. I also fear the gold backing up the claims of gold is too small and I suspect this could potentially lead to a collapse in the gold paper market. I do like goldmining companies though, especially the one's with a low price to book value. I'm imagining it would be a lot harder for a bank to default on your ownership of a company. Either way, this is were Bitcoin really shines, it doesn't leave you with a risk of being screwed by a defaulting bank. All you would need to cash out on this "put option" is a computer and internet access.
Fear of haircuts
If this whole experiment with low interest rates fails, and economic chaos indeed ensues, I expect governments around the world to act in a similar fashion as seen in Greece/Argentine. Bank depositors will most likely have to take a haircut on their deposits to refinance the system. This is the most crucial part of why you should own bitcoins. I believe the threat of this bail-in approach to reach debt-equilibrium in the financial world, will drive people to assets which cannot be confiscated. As Reuters report, this bail-in legislation is now being extended to other EU countries, regardless of whether they're in the Euro or not.(3).We’ve already seen some correlations of the Bitcoin price with bad economic sentiment, and I expect that trend to catch on as time proceeds. The most clear cut example of this we got during the summer, with the increase in demand for bitcoins during the Greek-crisis. The day Greece reached an agreement with its creditors - Bitcoin dropped 12%. Yet, recent volatility in global stocks has not been accompanied with upward pressure on Bitcoin. When Dow Jones fell a thousand points intraday, Bitcoin fell as well, suggestion the link between financial instability and the value of Bitcoin at least for now is rather weak. But if we take a look at Argentine and their post collapse economy (after suffering a bond market collapse and soaring inflation), we find it is here where bitcoin is having the most impact as an actual money transmitter. As NYT notes ”Argentine has been quietly gaining renown in technology circles as the first, and almost only place where bitcoins are being regularly used by ordinary people for real commercial transactions.”(4)
Valuation and risk
First of all, one should obviously not invest more than what's bearable to lose, since there's still a nontrivial chance of bitcoin having the value of zero in the future. Today the Bitcoin market cap is about 5 billion dollars. Besides a small market cap, the uncertainty of demand and the arguably lack of intrinsic value is two of its biggest weaknesses. Even if you believe in the idea of a digital currency, Bitcoin is far from the only one out there. There's competition in the form of other cryptocurrencies with similar but different properties, and only the future will tell which of these (if any) will come out on top. As for now though, Bitcoin has established itself as the clear frontrunner. There is also a high governmental risk involved. If our political leaders start seeing this digital money as a threat to its powers of taxation, or fears grow about what it might do to enable shady transactions, it will certainly go out of its way to try and stop it. Even though the Bitcoin as a system itself is resiliencent to government intervention, one could easily foresee regulation aimed to strangle Bitcoin companies operating in the real world, making mass adoption a lot less likely. So far the western world haven’t cracked down too much on Bitcoin, in some places it has even been declared as a currency, not a commodity, meaning any potential gains in one's holding in those countries would be free from taxation. I'll leave the risks of the underlying technology to be explained by someone else, but google the words Bitcoin+fork and you'll find another very good reason not to go full retard in bitcoins.
References: (1) https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/nixon-shock (2) http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/economist-tells-congress-us-may-be-worse-fiscal-shape-greece (3) http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN0OD14Z20150528 (4) http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/03/magazine/how-bitcoin-is-disrupting-argentinas-economy.html?_r=0
submitted by UngochNaiv to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

The case for Bitcoin

I posted this on my blog a couple of weeks ago, and since Bitcoin has been getting a lot of press lately I thought investing might be interested. Also bitcoinmarkets pretty much hated it and told me to post it here instead.
I won't be going in too deep of the underlying technology behind it, cause, you know..it's boring as shit. Of course the technology part is of great importance, but it's better explained by math/computer geeks - aka smart people. In short, Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer network containing units (bitcoins) that can be transferred in the system with zero to low costs. These units can themselves incorporate other pieces of data. Every transaction is verified by the computers running the system. The math behind it makes it impossible for any entity to mess with this process of continuous update of the ledger. The ledger being a sort of receipt which contains all previous transactions in the network. To break the system you would need to muster up more than half of the systems combined computer power. Discounting the possibility of quantum computing this would be incredibly expensive and/or impossible. Which is why banks around the world are working with this technology (not Bitcoin but the block-chain tech) to make tradingsystems where traders can buy/sell stocks. But to understand why Bitcoin is a good hedge, we need to understand money and the fragility of our current economy, and why this might lead to a lot of demand for bitcoins.
Money
Money is one of man’s greatest inventions. Since we left the barter system and started using mediums of exchange, different types of mediums has been used for trading. Gold, grain, salt amongst others, gold obviously being the most famous one. The right to redeem those papers you hold in your wallet for gold ended in a peculiar fashion with the death of Bretton Woods, and ever since then, we've been trading in fiat.(1). Like art, the intrinsic value of gold is definitely questionable. Yes, everyone does seem to desire gold, still it has very limited usefulness. Paper money being a lot worse, one could argue these unredeemable paper notes are worth as much as regular paper. But the fact that you need this fiat-money to pay taxes gives the market certainty of demand in the future, which I believe is the main reason why the markets are able to attribute these notes value.
Governmental control of money
As fiat became the predominant transmitter of wealth in our economy, governmental control over money increased. From a naive standpoint that power shift could seem unsignificant, but I would argue it has given us a profound shift in real economic activities. Money in the form of gold had a certain inflation built in to it, since people continuously dig it up from the ground. Yet the gold-economy saw price deflation as production became more efficient, thanks to the invisible hand of the market and advancements in technology. These deflationary powers were at times greater than the inflation coming from new gold findings. This might seem a little off topic but what I want to say is that price-deflation has historically been the norm, and shouldn't be viewed as dangerous. In todays fiat-world however, we hear about central banks trying to fight deflation, believing such an environment would be bad for the labour market. The main argument being that workers have a hard time accepting lower nominal wages, and that this causes overwhelming troubles for companies when they have to cut labour costs. Although fairly logical, I think this theory is disputed by our economic history and should in my opinion definitely not be taken as a fact. However, today when we hear about central banks fighting deflation, what they're really fighting is a credit crunch. Debt, also a form of money, has been growing increasingly for quite some time, driven of course by both fiscal and monetary policy actions. A deleveraging of debt would shrink the amount of debt-money, largely concentrated in stocks/bonds/real estate. This is what central banks are fighting, their job is basically to get this overly leveraged economy, more leveraged. Needless to say, we're in uncharted territory and their might be huge systemic risks involved. Bitcoin may be one way to hedge against this.
Government deficits and unfunded liabilities
At which rate would you be willing to loan money to Greece? This one is really a no-brainier, meaning you shouldn't have to think to come up with an answer, since Greece wouldn't pay you back either way. Greece has a enormous debt and a whole lot of unfunded liabilities. These unfunded liabilities are mostly consisting of workers pensions and healthcare obligations to the greek people. Greek politicians will always rank these payment obligations as a higher priority expenditure than to give "greedy speculators" back their money. That simple fact holds true for most government bonds. Therefore I think almost all government bonds are worth substantially less than they are being priced today. Right now the market deems these bonds as low-risk assets. For example, the U.S 10-year bond yields around 2%. In other words; you'll get close to no return (if the FED manages to reach close to its inflation target) for loaning out your money to the worlds largest debtor nation for a period of ten years. This anomaly is so great and profound, it should be viewed as a major indicator on just how messed up things have become. How did we get these absurd yields? Well, demand for bonds drive the yields down, and ever since the financial crisis central banks like the FED and ECB has been on a buying spree. Speculators joined them in their buying and have been betting on the the continuing bondpurchasing from the CB's, or holding a belief that the CB's will be unable to reach inflation targets, basically taking a bet on deflation. In a real market economy (not driven by central banks) with a low savings rate like the United States, these bonds would yield a lot more. The fact is the U.S, much like Greece, can’t repay its debt, ever, it’s impossible, nope, can’t be done. The U.S national debt is around 18 trillion dollars and their unfunded liabilities sums up to another whopping 210 trillion (as testified to congress by Boston university economic professor Laurence Kotlikoff).(2) Even though a lot of these future expenditures as Kotlikoff is including in his measurment could be slashed, some of them, like pensions, are going to be extremely unpopular to cut. If you listen to austrian economists they are pretty much all agreeing, proclaiming that the writing has been on the wall for quite some time.
Fear of haircuts
If this whole experiment with low interest rates fails, and economic chaos indeed ensues, I expect governments around the world to act in a similar fashion as seen in Greece/Argentine. Bank depositors will most likely have to take a haircut on their deposits to refinance the banking system. I believe the threat of this bail-in approach to reach debt-equilibrium in the financial world, will drive people to assets which cannot be confiscated. And if you don't think bail-in is a high probabilty event in your country, here's Reuters reporting on the new bail-in legislation: "Bail-in legislation is now being extended to other EU countries, regardless of whether they're in the Euro or not."(3).We’ve already seen some correlations of the Bitcoin price with bad economic sentiment, and I expect that trend to catch on as time proceeds. The most clear cut example of this we got during the summer, with the increase in demand for bitcoins during the Greek-crisis. The day Greece reached an agreement with its creditors- Bitcoin dropped 12%. Yet, recent volatility in global stocks has not been accompanied with upward pressure on Bitcoin. When Dow Jones fell a thousand points intraday, Bitcoin fell as well. Suggestion the link between financial instability and the value of bitcoins at least for now is rather weak. But take a look at Argentine and their post collapse economy and you'll find something very interesting. After suffering a bond market collapse and soaring inflation, it is here where bitcoin is having the most impact as an actual money transmitter. As NYT notes ”Argentine has been quietly gaining renown in technology circles as the first, and almost only place where bitcoins are being regularly used by ordinary people for real commercial transactions.”(4)
Valuation and risk
First of all, one should obviously not invest more than what's bearable to lose, since there's a nontrivial chance of bitcoin having the value of zero in the future. I also don't want to be responsible for anyone losing a big piece of their net worth, but if you invest your money according what someone on the internet with the name "UngNaiv" (young and foolish) you probably have no one to blame but yourself. Anyway, today Bitcoin have a market cap of about 4.5 billion dollars. Besides a small market cap, the uncertainty of demand and the arguably lack of intrinsic value is two of its biggest weaknesses. Even if you believe in the idea of a digital currency, Bitcoin is far from the only one out there. There's competition in the form of other cryptocurrencies with similar but different properties, and only the future will tell which of these (if any) will come out on top. As for now though, Bitcoin has established itself as the clear frontrunner. There is also a high governmental risk involved. If our political leaders start seeing this digital money as a threat to its powers of taxation, or fears grow about what it might do to enable shady transactions, it will certainly go out of its way to try and stop it. Even though the Bitcoin as a system itself is resiliencent to government intervention, one could easily foresee regulation aimed to strangle Bitcoin companies operating in the real world, making mass adoption a lot less likely. So far the western world haven’t cracked down too much on Bitcoin, in some places it has even been declared as a currency, not a commodity, meaning any potential gains in one's holding in those countries would be free from taxation. I'll leave the risks of the underlying technology to be explained by someone else, but google the words Bitcoin+fork and you'll find another very good reason not to go full retard in bitcoins.
References:
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/nixon-shock (1)
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/economist-tells-congress-us-may-be-worse-fiscal-shape-greece (2)
http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN0OD14Z20150528 (3)
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/03/magazine/how-bitcoin-is-disrupting-argentinas-economy.html?_r=0 (4)
submitted by UngochNaiv to investing [link] [comments]

BITCOIN HOLDERS PANIC! $32 BILLION STOCK MARKET BAILOUT! $2.1BN WIRECARD THEFT! XRP BTC DOW Analysis BITCOIN HALVING BULLISH!! UK STOCK MARKET CRASH!! BTC ETH & Dow Jones Analysis URGENT BITCOIN LITECOIN ETHEREUM and DOW JONES UPDATE!!! price, trading, news, crypto BULL RALLY or MORE DOWNSIDE COMING for BITCOIN LITECOIN ETHEREUM and DOW JONES crypto trading, news URGENT!!! IF BITCOIN BREAKS THIS FINAL PRICE - FULL ON BULL MODE  MUST SEE

Bitcoin has surged almost 25% since last week. The Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high Friday, breaking $6,000 for the first time on all the major cryptocurrency exchanges. The Dow Jones closed the week -4.63 percent from its last all-time high of October 3rd. Let’s round that down to -5 percent, which as seen in the table on the Dow Jones’ BEV chart is 1,342 points below last October’s high-water mark. ©Mark Lundeen. Five percent from a previous all-time high is still in scoring position. In the table ... After October 3rd’s last all-time high, as the Dow Jones declined 18 percent in late December, I wasn’t predicting a recovery towards new all-time highs. With the Dow Jones seeing sixteen days of extreme volatility from October to early January, there was no reason to. The Dow Jones and its step sum below are looking very constructive. A new all-time high for the Dow Jones in the weeks to come, and maybe next week is a possiblility. Gold, as seen below, is under pressure with down days overwhelming advancers. Yet with all those down days the bears have still failed to drive it below its BEV -10% level. Bitcoin price blasted yesterday over $1,000 to a high of $13,200 and has reignited interest in the crypto market once again in a major way. A new 2020 high was set on the BTCUSD pair, but a higher peak over the 2019 top has yet to be reached. Elsewhere in the world, however, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap has just set a new all-time high, valued in various national fiat currencies. A ...

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BITCOIN HOLDERS PANIC! $32 BILLION STOCK MARKET BAILOUT! $2.1BN WIRECARD THEFT! XRP BTC DOW Analysis

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM BITCOIN, LITECOIN, ETHEREUM, DOW JONES, GOLD and SILVER, Let me know what you think below! My Wife's CRYPTO MERCH page: https://inkurimage.com Trading Exchanges BYBIT ... Bitcoin Price CRASHED! But can it recover? DOW Jones (DOWJ) has been dragging the Stock Market Down, Will NEXT WEEK YIELD a STOCK MARKET CRASH? Find out in todays video! Today i discuss Stock ... BULL RALLY or MORE DOWNSIDE COMING for BITCOIN LITECOIN ETHEREUM and DOW JONES crypto trading, news ... This market is HIGH RISK, enter, invest or trade at your own RISK!!! I am not responsible ... MASSIVE MOVE COMING SOON!!!! WHICH WAY WILL IT BREAK??? BITCOIN LITECOIN ETHEREUM and DOW JONES traditional markets, Will Bitcoin work for the average joe?or... The Dow Jones DOWJ is currently looking like it will CRASH THE AMERICAN STOCK MARKET. My Bitcoin Price Prediction. America is not handling this financial news very well and is ordering the federal ...

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